CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw choppy, two-sided trade as thin holiday volume and January options expiration added volatility. March corn futures finished 1 cent lower at 450, while May slipped ¾ cent to 458½. Despite the day’s softness, March futures gained 6¼ cents on the week, marking the highest weekly close since June 30.
• January options expired during the session, with the 450 strike holding the largest concentration of open interest for both calls and puts. Price action appeared magnetized to that level as expiration approached.
• The corn market will be looking toward to the January 12 WASDE and Crop production report. This will be the last crop production report where the USDA can adjust yield estimates until the September Grain Stocks report. The market will be looking for a yield cut due to poor finishing weather in key areas of the corn belt.
• South American weather remains mostly favorable for crop production. The weather story will be a focus as the calendar turns into 2026, and its outlook for the development of South American crops.
• US corn demand continues to provide underlying support, with US supplies remaining the most competitively priced on the global export market. Export sales for the 2025–26 marketing year are currently running at record levels.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures ended the day lower in this holiday trade. January soybeans lost 4-1/2 cents to $10.58-3/4 while March lost 4 cents to $10.72-1/2. $11.00 is likely the next target higher for March. January soybean meal lost $1.00 to $303.70 while January soybean oil lost 0.31 cents to 48.72. First notice day for January beans and products is on December 31.
• Soybeans posted significant gains earlier in the day which eroded, but despite this, prices did not take out the previous days’ low, took out the previous days’ high, and still appear to be carving out a bottom. Funds maintain a net long position, and consistent Chinese purchases are helping to support the market.
• As of the December 16 CFTC report, funds held a net long position of 148,768 contracts. Futures have sold off since then, so that position is likely now smaller. Seasonal trade tends to see soybean prices rise in the later part of December, and good demand has been the fundamental piece of this recent rally.
• South American weather has been a large bearish factor recently with conditions about as good as they can get. Rains are expected to fall across key areas in Argentina this weekend, and while Brazil has seen plenty of moisture, some areas may prove to be too wet.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mixed after stronger start to the session, despite a higher close for MATIF futures. Soybeans led the US grain complex to the downside, and wheat was taken along for the ride. The only green on the screen for the wheat market was in deferred KC contracts. March Chicago slipped 2-3/4 cents to 519, Kansas City fell 1/2 cent to 533-1/2, and MIAX was down 1 cent at 579-1/4.
• The Commitments of Traders report earlier this week indicated that managed funds, as of December 16, have a net short wheat position of just under 67,000 contracts (between futures and options). While this indicates they have a bearish sentiment, it could also prime the market for a short covering rally if friendly news surfaces.
• Russia has announced a wheat export quota of 20 mmt for the period of February 15 through June 30. This is nearly double the amount shipped last year.
• Continued fighting in the Black Sea, with additional attacks reported over the Christmas holiday, has further reduced the optimism surrounding a peace deal. However, news outlets have stated that Ukraine’s President Zelensky will come to the US for further talks – the key may be whether or not Ukraine is willing to concede territory to Russia.
• According to the International Grains Council, US wheat export values remain at the upper end of the range, globally. US HRW offers are around $244/mt, whereas Argentina currently has the world’s cheapest offer near $208/mt. Russian milling wheat was closer to the middle, in the vicinity of $227/mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures closed with decent gains today. January was only up a penny, but February jumped 25 cents to close at $15.63.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.3675/lb today, losing 2.25 cents on the week. Spot whey was up a half cent today to $0.73/lb, up 2.50 from last Friday.
• Class IV futures were unchanged through except for September through November 2026 futures, which were higher on 4 contracts traded.
• Both spot butter and powder were unchanged today. Those products were 1.25 cents lower and 2.25 cents higher on the week, respectively.

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Author

Amanda Brill