FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn prices reversed early-session gains, posting a technical chart reversal that could trigger further selling ahead of the year’s final trading session.
• Hedge funds hold a large net long position in corn, but year-end position squaring may add pressure. The latest Commitment of Traders report is due Monday afternoon.
• The USDA released weekly corn inspections on Monday morning. Last week, exporters moved 878,000 Mt (34.6 mb), down from 1.15 MMT last week. Total Export inspections are running 29% ahead of last year and well above the pace to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its Argentina corn planting estimate to 6.6 million hectares (16.3 million acres), from 6.3 million previously citing better profitability for corn compared to soybeans.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade which saw prices significantly higher to start the day before fading into negative territory. While the close was higher, March futures may have met some resistance at the 50-day moving average and $10.00 mark. Both soybean meal and oil were higher as well.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 57.7 million bushels for the week ending December 26. This was within the range of trade estimates and put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.051 bb, which is up 31% from the previous year.
• The USDA attaché in Brazil is now estimating the 24/25 crop in the country at 165 mmt. Planted acreage grew from last year, and crop estimates have continued to grow as the season continues. Brazilian weather forecasts remain favorable while Argentina may see a stretch of drier weather coming up.
• CONAB has said that Brazil’s soybean exports are likely to reach 105.5 mmt in the 24/25 season which would be an improvement from the previous season where export totaled 96.8 mmt as a result of lower production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed the session relatively quietly, with small gains in Chicago and Kansas City, but small losses in Minneapolis. World demand is providing some support, with reports of large purchases by Algeria and Egypt. But technical selling at midday led to prices fading into the end of the session.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 12.4 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections to 451 mb, which is up 27% from the year prior. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.
• Rumors of Egypt purchasing 1.27 mmt of wheat offered early support to the market, despite anticipation that the majority would be sourced from Russia.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is 89% complete as of December 27. This is up from 76% the week prior. Additionally, they left their production estimate unchanged at 18.6 mmt, which remains above the USDA at 17.5 mmt.
• As reported by IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $237 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. Furthermore, the Russian agriculture ministry lowered the wheat export tax to 4,346 Rubles per mt through January 14; this represents a 9% decline from the previous figure.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures improved on Monday getting some follow through support from Friday’s higher trade. The February and March contracts traded into new highs of $20.70 and $20.34 respectively.
• Spot cheese improved 3.875 cents on the day to $1.85875/lb while whey was unchanged at $0.75/lb.
• The Class IV futures were mostly lower on the day due to lower product trading for butter and powder.
• Both spot butter and powder lost half a cent to trade at $2.57/lb and $1.3825/lb respectively.

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Author

Brandon Doherty