FROM ALL OF US AT TOTAL FARM MARKETING, HAVE A HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31: The CME has regular trading hours, and Total Farm Marketing offices will close at 3:00 p.m. (CT).

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure remained in the corn market on Tuesday as the lack of bullish news and end of year position squaring limited the upside in the market. March futures slipped 1 ¾ cents to 44 ½, while the March contract lost 2 ¼ cents to 448 ½.
• Corn market is looking to stay in a range bound trade, with March trading from 436-450 range. The market is looking for fresh news to work higher or lower, which will not likely come until the January WASDE report.
• South American weather remains mostly favorable. Brazil is seeing showers in key growing areas, but Argentina could be seeing a drying pattern over the next few weeks. This dryness could impact corn production as the crop develops.
• The corn market will be looking toward to the January 12 WASDE and Crop Production report. This will be the last Crop Production report where the USDA can adjust yield estimates until the September Grain Stocks report. Overall trade could remain quiet and choppy until that report.
• USDA will release the next back-dated Export Sales report on Wednesday morning. This is covering export sales for the week ending December 18. Corn export demand for the 2025-26 marketing year is at a record pace.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly lower following yesterday’s severe sell-off. Trade was quiet today with low holiday volume and little fresh news. January soybeans’ first notice day is tomorrow, and they lost 3-1/4 cents to $10.46-1/4 while March lost 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-1/4. January soybean meal lost $2.10 to $296.70 and January soybean oil gained 0.15 cents to 48.93 cents.
• Positive news for soybeans came this morning as private exporters reported a sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China for the 25/26 marketing year. An additional sale of 231,000 mt of soybeans were reported to unknown destinations for 25/26.
• In Brazil, some of the largest soybean traders in the world are preparing to break their agreement to protect the Amazon Rainforest from agricultural activity. Since the agreement was signed in 2006, millions of acres of tropical forest have been saved.
• U.S. export inspections were decent for soybeans yesterday at 750k tons which compared to 929k tons the previous week and 1,644k tons a year ago. China was a top buyer which was encouraging, but exports to other countries have waned.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board in sympathy with corn and soybean futures. A combination of a lower close for MATIF wheat, a firmer US Dollar, and thin holiday trade may have all contributed to the weaker tone. March Chicago lost 2-1/4 cents to 510-3/4, Kansas City was down 5-1/4 at 522, and MIAX slipped ¾ of a cent to 578-1/2.
• Argentina’s December wheat exports were said to be a record at 2.5 mmt. Additionally, there is talk that their January exports could reach 4.0 mmt for the first time. Argentine wheat is said to currently be the world’s cheapest on the export market.
• According to a state news agency, China has vowed to “stabilize grain and edible oil production”. In essence, China is working towards self-sufficiency so that they are not as reliant on grain imports. And they seem to be on the right path – recent data from their statistics bureau indicated that their total 2025 grain production hit a new record of 714.9 mmt, up 1.2% from 2024.
• Brazil’s 2025 wheat planted area decreased again, according to CONAB. The 2025 sown area was said to be 20% below that of 2024 and also the smallest since 2020. This decline is reported to largely stem from issues in 2024, where weather problems affected production and profitability. Despite the smaller planted area, however, this year’s production may exceed last year’s due to favorable weather.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures received a boost higher today thanks to an uptick in cheese prices. February futures led the way higher, improving 43 cents to $15.86.
• Spot cheese tacked on 2 cents to close at $1.3925/lb. Whey prices were unchanged once again at $0.73/lb.
• Class IV futures were higher on the day due to a slight uptick in butter. June futures saw the largest jump, gaining 21 cents to close at $15.16.
• Both spot butter and powder added half a cent to close out the day at $1.4050/lb and $1.1750/lb, respectively.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg