CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market used a slightly friendly USDA report to push higher on the session. March futures closed 4 ¼ cents higher to 448, while March added 4 ¼ cents to settle at 455 ½.
• Tuesday’s close was supportive technically as prices settled above the 200-day moving average. A move above and technical swing-point could trigger additional technical buying going into the end of the week.
• Tuesday’s WASDE report saw little adjustments on the corn balance with the exception of a 125 mb increase in export demand to bring the 2025-26 marketing year target to 3.200 BB. This adjustment lowered corn carryout to 2.029 BB, down 100 mb from analyst expectations for the report.
• Argentina announced a new reduced export tax for grains, making adjustments lower to aid export demand and support the Argentina farmer. The corn export tax on corn was lowered from 9.5% to 8.5%.
• The U.S. Dollar Index could be set to weaken based off the decision by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce the prime lending rate again on Wednesday, further weakening the U.S. dollar.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day despite a relatively neutral WASDE report as traders are still concerned that China will not meet its purchasing commitment. January soybeans lost 6-1/2 cents to $10.98-1/4 while March lost 7-1/2 cents to $10.98-1/4. January soybeans have lost 50-1/2 cents since the beginning of the month. January soybean meal was down $5.00 to $301.30 and January soybean oil was down 0.16 cents to 51.02 cents.
• There were very few changes to soybeans in today’s USDA report, but prices reacted negatively anyway. U.S. ending stocks were unchanged from November at 290 mb, but this felt somewhat friendly as many traders were anticipating an increase to around 350 mb. World ending stocks were up 0.4 mmt to 122 mmt for 25/26.
• Yesterday’s export inspections saw soybean inspections at 1,018k tons which compared to 932k last week and 1,739k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, China, and Indonesia. China’s appearance in this report is encouraging, but they will need to ramp up purchases to meet their 12 mmt commitment.
• In Brazil, the state of Mato Grosso is now 100% planted, and weather has remained positive which has further pressured prices. Most analysts are projecting another record-breaking Brazilian soybean crop for 25/26.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat market had a mixed close after a relatively neutral report from the USDA this morning. March Chicago lost 1/4 cent to 534-1/2, Kansas City gained 1/2 cent to 527, and MIAX was up 5 cents at 576-1/4. Wheat futures are at or near technically oversold levels, but the falling soybean market may limit upside recovery for now.
• On today’s WASDE report, U.S. 25/26 wheat carryout was pegged at 901 mb, which was unchanged from November and above expectations for a drop to 893 mb. Meanwhile, global wheat ending stocks came in at 274.8 mmt, up from 271.4 mmt last month and expectations of 272.7 mmt. Furthermore, the USDA left 25/26 wheat demand unchanged, with exports at 900 mb.
• Lower export taxes in Argentina have offered some headwind to US grain futures. Their duty on wheat will fall from 9.5% to 7.5%, and there are also reductions for soybeans, soy products, corn, barley, and sorghum.
• Argus has estimated the Ukrainian 26/27 wheat crop will reach 23.9 mmt. This would be up 4% from their 23 mmt estimate for the 25/26 season and would also be a five-year high. The reason for the increase is said to be due to expectations for higher harvested area as well as increased yields. This comes not long after SovEcon estimated Ukraine’s 26/27 wheat crop at 24.6 mmt, up 7% from their 25/26 projection.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly higher despite cheese prices falling again. The January contract led the way higher, gaining 13 cents to $15.35.
• Spot cheese fell for a third straight day, to go home at $1.38/lb. Whey was unchanged for a fourth straight day at $0.7450/lb.
• Class IV futures were steady to slightly lower on quiet, low volume trading. February futures lost 3 cents on the day to close at $13.52.
• Spot butter was unchanged from the day prior at $1.4775/lb while powder lost a penny to close at $1.1650/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty