CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn market saw strong selling pressure as the burdensome supply picture and seasonal weakness pressured the corn market despite a friendly export inspections report. March corn finished 5 ½ lower to 426 ¼, and the May contract lost 6 ¼ cents to 435 ¾.
• USDA released the weekly export inspection on Tuesday morning. For the week ending February 12, a total of 1.492 MMT (58.8 mb) of corn was inspected for export. This was above trade expectations. Current export inspections are trending 44% above last year and approximately 313 mb above the pace to reach the USDA target.
• On Friday, the USDA released baseline projections for the 2026/27 marketing year. The agency projected corn acreage at 95 million acres, a trend yield of 182 bushels per acre, and ending stocks of 2.102 billion bushels.  The USDA ag outlook forum is on Thursday this week, and it is likely these numbers will be the baseline for budgetary reasons for the next marketing year.
• Going into the end of February, the corn market sees a typical weakness. March options expire on Friday, and that can bring volatility. On February 27, March corn reaches first notice day, and producers holding basis contracts or price later contracts will be forced into decisions. This typically brings selling pressure to the market as physical bushels are moving or getting priced.
• South American forecast looked improved as rain hit some key growing areas of Argentina that have be pressured with dry weather, and growing areas of Brazil are looking at a drier forecast, which should allow planting progress to improve with the second crop corn planting.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher coming off overnight lows but sliding from higher gains earlier in the day. NOPA crush numbers were supportive while export inspections were within trade estimates. March soybeans gained one cent to $11.34 while November gained 4 cents to $11.17-1/2. March soybean meal lost $3.40 to $305.80 and bean oil gained 0.21 cents to 57.29 cents.
• Today, NOPA crush numbers were released and showed soybean crush above already lofty expectations at 221.6 million bushels for January. This compared to expectations of 218.5 mb and the prior month’s 224.9 mb. Strong crush demand has helped support nearby soy prices.
• Export inspections for the week ending February 12 were good but were within trade estimates with 44.2 million bushels inspected. This was slightly above the previous week and well above this time last year as China has stepped in as an active buyer.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 94,316 contracts which increased their net long position to 123,148 contracts. They bought 23,252 contracts of bean oil holding a net long position of 33,093 contracts and bought 7,412 contracts of meal reducing their net short position to 14,325 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed in the red across all three classes, pressured primarily by rain in the forecast for U.S. winter wheat areas. Today’s lower close for MATIF wheat and firming of the US Dollar Index added weight to the shoulders of the market. March Chicago fell 11 cents to 537-3/4, Kansas City was down 3-3/4 cents to 538-3/4, and MIAX slipped 3-1/2 cents to 568-1/4.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 13.8 mb – this was on par with expectations but under the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s goal. Total 25/26 inspections have reached 651 mb which is up 19% from last year.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished $2 higher last week at $233/mt FOB, well below US offers around $250/mt. Last week, IKAR raised their 2026 Russian wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 91 mmt. Meanwhile, SovEcon has increased their estimate by 2.1 mmt to 85.9 mmt. For reference, the USDA is sitting at 89.5 mmt.
• Russian drone strikes are said to have seriously damaged energy infrastructure in the Odessa region of Ukraine. This will likely continue to hamper Ukrainian grain exports, though the market seems to have largely shrugged off the news.
• According to the most recent Commitments of Traders report, for the week ending February 10, managed funds sold about 3,900 contracts of Chicago wheat, bringing their total net short position to just over 85,600 contracts. During that same period, they more than doubled their short position in Kansas City wheat, selling about 10,600 contracts to bring their net short to almost 19,500 contracts.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed but most nearby contracts closed higher. March was up a nickel to finish at $15.93.
• Spot cheese was more than 3 cents up from Friday to settle at $1.45/lb. Spot whey gained 2 cents to move to $0.74/lb.
• Class IV action was also mixed but March, April, and May futures were up between 9 and 12 cents. 
• Spot butter was unchanged from Friday at $1.7050/lb while powder gave back a penny to move to $1.59/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill