CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Money flowed into the corn market for the first trading day of the week as corn futures finished with strong gains. The March contract closed above the $5 level for the first time in 16 months. New crop December corn futures finished at their highest level since last June.
• Strong demand continues to fuel the market. Weekly export inspections for February 13 reached 1.611 MMT (63.4 mb), the highest for that week in 43 years, with exports running 35% ahead of last year and above USDA targets.
• Preliminary data suggests that corn exports from the U.S. may have broken a 35-year-old record for the month of January. It is estimated that the U.S. shipped over 6 MMT (236 mb) in the month of January.
• Brazil’s second-crop corn planting is behind schedule at 36% complete (up from 20% last week but below last year’s 59%), as farmers push to finish planting within the ideal weather window despite recent improvements in weather conditions.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher led by soybean oil and bullish sentiment in corn and wheat. March futures rebounded from overnight lows that saw prices down as much as 10 cents. Export inspections were disappointing and NOPA crush numbers were below expectations. Soybean meal was lower to end the day while soybean oil followed crude oil higher.
• Today’s export inspections report showed a total of 26.5 million bushels of soybeans inspected for export for the week ending February 13. Total inspections in 24/25 are now at 1.323 mb which is up 12% from the previous year. This was below the lowest range of trade estimates as Brazilian harvest progresses.
• Today’s NOPA Crush report saw January soybean crush coming in at 200.38 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 204.5 mb. This was also below last month’s 206.6 mb but higher than last year’s crush at this time of 185.8 mb.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 28,554 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of 28,475 contracts. They were net buyers of bean oil and sellers of meal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures posted modest gains across all classes, supported by strength in corn, soybeans, and Matif wheat. Bitter cold in the Midwest and Plains continues to raise winterkill concerns in areas with limited snow cover.
• Weekly wheat inspections reached 9.2 mb, bringing the 24/25 total to 546 mb, up 22% from last year and ahead of USDA’s 850 mb export target (up 20% YoY).
• Diplomats from the U.S. and Russia met today in Saudi Arabia to discuss negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian ambassadors were reportedly absent from these discussions, which raises questions as to what type of agreement will be reached, if any. Nevertheless, traders will be keeping an eye on these talks, as it could impact wheat trade in that region of the world.
• IKAR reported Russian wheat export values rose $2/mt to $247/mt FOB last week and lowered February 2025 export estimates to 1.6-1.8 mmt from 2 mmt, well below February 2024’s 4.1 mmt.
• Since their export season began on July 1, Ukraine has shipped 27.5 mmt of grain, according to their ag ministry. This is up about 2% year over year. Wheat exports in specific account for 11.5 mmt of that total, which is up 9% year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mostly lower today, although most contracts held relatively close to Friday’s finish. March dropped a dime to move to $19.60.
• Spot cheese fell just 0.1250 cents today to $1.8675/lb on no loads traded. Whey was unchanged at $0.5550/lb.
• The Class IV contracts were once again under pressure with the March through October 2025 futures down 12 to 30 cents.
• Spot butter jumped 3.25 cents to close at $2.41/lb. Spot powder was even with Friday at $1.28/lb.
• The Global Dairy Trade Index was 0.6% lower from February 4th, but still sits near a 31-month high. Butter and cheese hold strong premiums to US prices.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg