CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw choppy two-sided trade on Wednesday before finishing slightly higher on the session. The market seemed cautious and squared positions ahead of the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday. March corn gained ¾ cents to 427, and May finished 1 cent higher to 436 ¾.
• The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held Thursday morning, where baseline projections for the 2026/27 marketing year are scheduled for release. Trade expectations center on 94.9 million planted acres, a trendline yield of 183.3 bushels per acre, and ending stocks near 1.978 billion bushels — on top of this year’s record production.
• Corn has struggled to find much momentum since January’s bearish WASDE report and has mainly followed the moves in wheat and soybeans. Export demand has remained firm but has not been enough to drive prices significantly higher. Large global supplies continue to weigh on prices as analysts expect another season of strong corn production from South America.
• Seasonally, corn often faces weakness into late February. March options expire Friday, which can introduce short-term volatility. Additionally, first notice day for March futures is February 27. Producers holding basis or “price-later” contracts may be forced to set futures, a dynamic that often increases hedge-related selling as physical bushels are priced or moved.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day and traded in an 11-cent range before finishing virtually unchanged. Optimism over biofuel blending quotas and strong crush demand were friendly, while the lack of new Chinese flash sales due to their Lunar New Year Holiday were bearish and may have traders questioning China’s consideration to purchase another 8 mmt of U.S. beans.
• March soybeans lost ½ cent to 1133-1/2 sliding from its high of 1144 this morning, and November soybeans lost 1 cent to 1116-1/2. March soybean meal lost $1.90 to $303.90 and March soybean oil gained 1.30 cents to 58.59 cents which was near the contract high posted today.
• Leadership came from soybean oil, which lent support to the broader complex following expectations that the Environmental Protection Agency will submit proposed 2026 biofuel blending quotas to the White House this week. The White House typically has 30 days to review such proposals. A constructive outcome would imply stronger forward demand for soybean oil.
• At the end of the month, the USDA will release its estimates for 2026/27 planted acreage, and many analysts see producers leaning away from corn and towards soybeans. Estimated soybean planted acres are at 85.0 million which would compare to 81.2 million last year. Corn acres are expected to be reduced by 3.8 ma.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted gains across the board, with both winter classes making double-digit strides. While there is talk that the Ukrainian farmer union is concerned about damaged due to recent freezing temperatures (after a thaw), there was not much else in the way of fresh news to cause the rally today. March Chicago was up 9-1/4 cents at 547, Kansas City climbed 12-1/4 cents to 551, and MIAX gained 5-3/4 cents to 574.
• A Bloomberg survey projects U.S. wheat acreage declining by 600,000 acres to 44.7 million in 2026. Production is expected to fall 113 million bushels to 1.872 billion, with ending stocks projected 44 million bushels lower at 887 million.
• The Russian Energy Minister has stated that his nation has prepared a food security program with Iran, and the countries are in discussions for large volumes of wheat supplies from Russia. Additionally, it is reported that rail construction between the two will begin April 1.
• Russia’s Transport Minister has indicated that during 2026, seaport capacity will increase by 21 mmt. This includes grain terminals, meaning there is potential for increased Russian exports. The Vysotsk grain terminal specifically will see an increased capacity of 4 mmt. Other areas of growth will favor fertilizer and coal shipments.
• Domestically, warm and wet conditions are forecast across much of the U.S. winter wheat belt into early March. Improved soil moisture levels should support crop development heading into spring.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk saw strong gains today, with the March contract climbing 75 cents to finish at $16.68.
• Spot cheese increased 3.5 cents to $1.4850/lb, while spot whey held steady at $0.7400/lb.
• Class IV milk also moved higher, with the March contract up 12 cents to close at $18.37.
• Spot butter was flat at $1.7050/lb, while powder edged higher, gaining 0.75 cents to finish at $1.5975/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty