CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures traded unevenly today as market participants reacted to fresh data from the USDA Outlook Forum and weekly ethanol production report. Pressure was concentrated in the nearby contracts, which ended lower, while deferred months managed slight gains. March corn settled 6 cents lower at 4.26¼, while May corn closed down 2 cents at 4.36½.
• Baseline projections released at the USDA Outlook Forum were largely in line with pre-report expectations. Corn planted acreage was estimated at 94 million acres, while soybean acreage was projected at 85 million acres. If realized, this would represent a 4.8 million acre decline in corn plantings from last year and a 3.8 million acre increase in soybean acreage.
• Assuming normal weather conditions, USDA projected at the Ag Outlook Forum that the 2026 U.S. corn crop will total 15.755 billion bushels. After accounting for demand from exporters, livestock feeders, and biofuel producers, ending corn stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected at 1.837 billion bushels as of August 31, 2027.
• Ethanol output rebounded in the latest reporting week, totaling 329 million gallons for the week ending February 13, compared with 326 million gallons the previous week. Production was in line with expectations and up 3% from a year earlier. Corn consumption averaged 15.84 million bushels per day, exceeding the pace needed to reach the USDA’s 5.6 billion bushel annual target.
• Seasonally, corn prices tend to soften into late February. March options expire Friday, a factor that can generate short-term volatility. In addition, first notice day for March futures falls on February 27. Producers holding basis or “price-later” contracts may need to fix futures ahead of that date, a dynamic that can increase hedge-related selling as cash bushels are priced or delivered.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher and came back from relatively unchanged levels earlier in the day. Increasing estimated acres in the Outlook Forum report did not have a bearish impact on futures. March soybeans gained 7-1/2 cents today to $11.41 while November gained just 1-3/4 cents to $11.18-1/4. March soybean meal gained $0.90 to $304.80, and March bean oil gained 1.09 cents to 59.68 cents making a new contract high.
• The Outlook Forum has estimated that farmers will likely plant 85.0 million acres of soybeans this season, up from 81.2 ma last year with lower corn acres. Trendline yield is 53.0 bpa which would leave ending stocks tight at 355 mb.
• Leadership came from soybean oil, which lent support to the broader complex following expectations that the Environmental Protection Agency will submit proposed 2026 biofuel blending quotas to the White House this week. The White House typically has 30 days to review such proposals. A constructive outcome would imply stronger forward demand for soybean oil.
• In Brazil, weather in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul had been struggling with hot and dry weather that may have impacted yields, but recent rains have brought relief with over 40 mm of precipitation falling.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat markets surged higher today, driven by gains in HRW futures and a supportive session for MATIF wheat. Traders also monitored reports of wildfires in the Southern Plains that may have affected thousands of acres of winter wheat, though damage assessments are still preliminary. March Chicago gained 12-1/2 cents to 5.59-1/2, Kansas City climbed 14-1/2 cents to 565-1/2, and MIAX was up 8-1/2 cents at 582-1/2.
• News reports indicate that Indonesia and the United States have reached a $38.4 billion trade agreement that includes purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans, and wheat.
• The USDA Outlook Forum indicated that U.S. 26/27 wheat area is expected to fall 300,000 acres to 45 million acres. With a trendline yield of 50.8 bpa, production would reach 1.860 bb, down 6% from last year. Additionally, demand is expected to decrease by 50 mb to 1.978 bb because of lower exports; this keeps ending stocks near 933 mb.
• According to the USDA, as of February 17, an estimated 46% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, an increase of 1% from last week. Meanwhile, spring wheat acres in drought increased 5% during the same time period to 16%.
• In an update from LSEG commodities research, Ukrainian 26/27 wheat production was unchanged at 22.8 mmt. Recent frosts are said to be unlikely to have caused significant damage. LSEG also left their forecast of Chinese 26/27 wheat production unchanged at 140.95 mmt, stating that winter conditions remain largely favorable. Finally, they left Indian 26/27 production unchanged as well at 114.4 mmt, citing adequate soil moisture across key growing areas.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV futures propelled higher today with the March contract settling 63 cents higher at $19.00.
• Spot butter hit a new high for the move at $1.78/lb, up 7.50 cents on the day. Spot powder was up 2.50 cents to $1.6225/lb.
• Class III futures came off their highest but the nearby contracts were still green. March garnered 26 cents with a $16.94 finish.
• Spot cheese closed up a half cent at $1.49/lb while whey was unchanged at $0.74/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg