CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Choppy trade in the corn market saw prices finish with modest gains for the session. With March options expiring on Friday, strength in the soybean market provided support and added volatility to the corn market.
• March corn options will expire on Friday, potentially increasing volatility as traders adjust positions ahead of the deadline. The 500 level of March calls is the largest area of open interest, and prices may hold near that level.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) released its latest global corn production estimates, lowering the world crop by 3 mmt due to weather-related impacts on South American production this growing season. However, the IGC’s estimates remain higher than those of the USDA for global corn production.
• The weekly ethanol production report continues to support corn demand. Production rebounded to 319 million gallons, showing a slight increase from the previous week. An estimated 109 MB of corn were used for ethanol production, keeping pace ahead of the required rate to meet USDA targets for the marketing year.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Friday morning. Expectations are for the week ending February 13, that new sales range from 900,000 MT –1.6 MMT. Last week total sales were 1.65 MMT as export demand stays supportive in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher, recovering all of yesterday’s losses and then some. However, prices have remained rangebound over the past week, with support at the 40-day moving average. Soybean oil also rebounded, regaining all of yesterday’s losses, while soybean meal was higher as well, with both products providing support for soybeans.
• Agroconsult has revised its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop down by 1.1 mmt, but the new estimate remains a record at 171.3 mmt. This is 15.8 mmt higher than last year’s crop, with the majority of the gains coming from the Center-North region.
• The International Grains Council decreased their estimate of global soybean production by 2 mmt to 418 mmt. This is said to be largely due to smaller production in Argentina and Paraguay. For reference, the USDA’s February forecast sits at 421 mmt.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their rating of Argentina’s soybean conditions by 2% to 66% of the crop rated normal to excellent. Additionally, soil moisture conditions were also improved by 5 points. With that, critical weather still lies ahead, as most of that crop has not started filling pods yet.
• Tomorrow’s export sales report is expected to show soybean sales in a range between 300,000 and 500,000 tons. Export demand has been on the decline recently as the Brazilian soybean harvest progresses and they offer soybeans at a discount to US offers.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat faced pressure today, closing with losses across all three classes. Minneapolis futures performed the best, likely supported by concerns over drought conditions in the U.S. Northern Plains. However, easing concerns about winter wheat crop damage may have contributed to today’s weakness, as temperatures in the nation’s midsection are expected to warm up by the weekend.
• According to the USDA, as of February 18, an estimated 20% of U.S. winter wheat acreage is facing drought conditions, marking a 3% improvement from the previous week. However, spring wheat acreage remained steady, with 40% experiencing drought compared to the week prior, well above last year’s 22% for this time period.
• The International Grains Council has increased their estimate of global wheat production by 1 mmt to 797 mmt. This is above the USDA’s February estimate of 794 mmt. The IGC’s increase is said to be mainly due to a bigger harvest in Kazakhstan.
• According to their ag ministry, France planted 6.35 million hectares of winter grains for the 2025 harvest, which is up 7.2% from 2024, but still 1.3% below the five-year average. The planted area for soft wheat specifically is up 10% year over year at 4.57 million hectares.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were up between 2 and 12 cents during Thursday’s trade, bringing the second month March to $19.20.
• Spot cheese lost a penny today to close at $1.8425/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.5450/lb.
• Class IV futures were mostly unchanged despite a nickel drop in April and a 2 cent gain in July.
• The Class IV spot products were lower with butter down 1.75 cents and powder 2 cents lower.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty