CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn ended the day higher after very volatile trade which saw prices sharply lower overnight before rallying following breaking news that the tariffs on Mexico would be postponed for 30 days. March corn filled both the gap left from last night’s trade along with the gap left on Friday at $4.90.
• Weekly inspections reached 49.3 million bushels, bringing the 2024/25 total to 856 million bushels, which is 33% ahead of last year. Inspections are outpacing the USDA’s estimated export pace of 2.450 billion bushels, which would reflect a 7% year-over-year increase.
• Argentina is forecasted to receive improved rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday, with as much as four inches possible over the next 10 days. This contributed to early session weakness in the corn market.
• Brazil has experienced heavy rains, delaying safrinha crop planting. As of last week, only 6% of the crop was planted, compared to 29% last year.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 28 by 39,043 contracts which increased their net long position to 350,721 contracts. Funds are now just 50,000 contracts shy from a record large net long position, and it may not take much bearish news to incentivize profit taking.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after a volatile session driven by shifting tariff news. Early in the session, soybean meal traded lower while soybean oil found support from tariffs on Canadian oil. However, once the Mexico tariffs were postponed, soybean meal rebounded, contributing to the broader soybean rally.
• Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 37.2 million bushels for the week ending January 30. Year-to-date, 2024/25 inspections have reached 1.252 billion bushels, up 16% from last year. The USDA projects soybean exports for 2024/25 to rise 8% from the previous year.
• Brazil’s 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 7.6% complete as of January 31 which compares to a pace of 15.7% the previous year and the 5-year average of 11.8% at this time. Rainfall has continued to fall throughout the country which could delay harvest further.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of soybeans as of January 28, adding 16,166 contracts and increasing their net long position to 56,496 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes today. The suspension of Mexico tariffs for one month provided a boost to grain markets after early session weakness. Additional support came from a retreat in the U.S. dollar off-session highs and strength in Matif wheat futures, where the May contract broke above resistance at the 200-day moving average.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 9.3 mb bring the 24/25 inspections total to 515 mb, which is up 24% from last year. Inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace, with exports for 24/25 estimated at 850 mb, up 20% from last year.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $239/mt which is up $2.50 from the week prior. Additionally, SovEcon reports that Russian grain exports totaled 660,000 mt last week, with wheat accounting for 590,000 mt of that total.
• Australia’s government estimated the wheat crop at 31.9 mmt in December. However, new analyst estimates suggest that the 24/25 crop could be about 2 mmt larger. In an analyst poll by Reuters, estimates now range between 32 and 35.5 mmt. This increase may be in large part due to yields in Western Australia exceeding expectations.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures traded nearly 50c lower in the overnight trade as the market reacted to weekend news about tariffs, with retaliations coming from Canada.
• By late morning, the Class III market had reversed to trading sharply green on talks that tariffs with Mexico would be postponed, as Mexico will now send 10,000 troops to the border to help the US.
• By close, the market finished mostly green for Class III, while Class IV once again traded under duress.
• The spot market trade on Monday saw cheese fall 1.75c lower, dry whey fall 2c lower, and butter lose 0.25c.
• There will be a Global Dairy Trade auction this week Tuesday followed by a Dairy Products report and Exports report on Wednesday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty