TFM Daily Market Summary 2-4-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Buyers stayed active in the corn market as traders put prospects of tariffs on the back burner and focused on the strong demand tone for U.S. corn. Buying in both the soybean and wheat markets helped support corn futures on Tuesday.
  • The front end of the corn market is pushing back toward the $5.00 resistance level, a price barrier that has capped March futures in recent trading.
  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of 132,000 metric tons (5.2 million bushels) of U.S. corn to South Korea for the current marketing year, further reinforcing demand strength.
  • Traders are closely monitoring Brazil’s delayed planting pace for its key second corn crop. A slow planting pace could extend the U.S. export window into early summer and expose Brazil’s crop to less favorable weather conditions, potentially limiting production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day significantly higher with the March contract closing above the 200-day moving average for the first time since December 2023. Higher soybean meal was the primary driver for soybeans today while soybean oil was slightly lower along with crude oil. The higher meal prices likely point to dry weather in Argentina and logistics issues in Brazil.
  • Grain markets have been volatile since tariffs were implemented and in some cases postponed yesterday, but China’s tariff of 10% was held in place. The bullish part of this news was that though China did retaliate placing tariffs on some U.S. goods, soybeans were not included.
  • In Brazil, despite the wet conditions that are delaying harvest, a large crop is still expected. A portion of harvest is completed, but there have been serious problems within the country concerning transportation with many main highways backed up with trucks carrying beans.
  • Yesterday, the USDA released its Fats and Oils report which saw the December soybean crush at 217.7 million bushels which was another monthly record for soybean crush. Crush margins remain firm which points to another strong crush number in January.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • All three wheat classes posted gains today, supported by strength in corn and soybeans, as well as a significant drop in the U.S. dollar. Winter wheat crop ratings, released yesterday, showed improvement in Kansas, the top-producing state, while conditions declined in Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado.
  • European Union soft wheat exports have reached 12.5 mmt as of February 2. That is down 37% year over year. Furthermore, the European Commission has kept EU total grain production steady at 255.8 mmt for 24/25, with wheat accounting for 111.9 mmt of that total.
  • According to SovEcon, Russia’s 24/25 wheat exports are anticipated at 42.8 mmt, below the USDA estimate of 46 mmt. However, they raised the 25/26 export estimate from 36.4 to 38.3 mmt. In related news, they have also said that domestic Russian wheat prices so far in 2025 have climbed 9% to $158/mt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III futures added to yesterday’s gains today with the nearby contracts up 22-35 cents.
  • Spot cheese was up 2.625 cents today to close at $1.8525/lb. Whey was unchanged.
  • The March, April, and May Class IV futures were up slightly today while the majority of other contracts were unchanged.
  • Both Class IV products were unchanged today despite a positive Global Dairy Trade auction.

 

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Author

John Heinberg

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