CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished slightly higher, failing to participate in the upside volatility seen in the soybean complex during the session. March corn futures gained 1 cent to 429 ¼, while the May contract added 1 ¼ cents to 437.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Unknown Destination purchased 130,480 MT (5.1 mb) for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• USDA will release weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 29, expectations for new corn sales to range from 800,000-2.1 MMT. Last week, export sales were 1.65 MMT. To date, the market is aware of only one reported sale totaling 110,000 MT.
• A storm front moving across key growing areas of Argentina could bring some beneficial rain to dry areas. The coverage area may be very scattered. Longer-range forecasts continue to hint at improved precipitation chances into the weekend.
• Weekly ethanol production plunged last week to 281 million gallons for the week as frigid temperatures likely impacted production. This total was down 14% from last year. Only 95 MB of corn was used last week in ethanol production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher on the commitment that China would buy more U.S. soybeans before the end of the marketing year. Futures were up as much as 50 cents following the news but retreated off those highs. March soybeans gained 26-1/2 cents to $10.92-1/4 while November gained 8-1.4 cents to $10.87-1/2. March soybean meal gained $4.40 to $296.20 and soybean oil gained 1.17 cents to 55.66 cents.
• Earlier today, President Trump posted on social media that he had had a very good conversation with China’s President Xi over soybean trade and Taiwan. He said that China would buy an additional 8 mmt of soybeans this marketing year on top of the 12 mmt already purchased and would still buy the 25 mmt the next marketing year like they had already committed to.
• More bullish momentum likely came from news that the U.S. Treasury has released its proposed rules for the 45z tax credit. This increased biofuel use of soybeans and corn as biofuel makers will be able to access a $1 per gallon credit for low carbon transportation fuels, including aviation fuel.
• StoneX has increased its forecast for Brazilian soybean production for 25/26 with new estimates at 181.62 million metric tons, which would be up from 177.61 mmt previously and would be a 7.6% increase year over year. Yields have looked more promising as harvest has progressed and is now 10% complete.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat faded from early gains and closed lower across all three classes as soybeans retreated from intraday highs. A recovering U.S. Dollar Index, rebounding from last week’s four-year low, continued to pressure the wheat market, while ample global supplies remain a headwind. March Chicago lost 2 cents to 526-3/4, Kansas City was down 4-1/2 at 530-1/4, and MIAX fell 2-1/4 to 566.
• There is talk that both the Middle East and northern Africa are seeing higher wheat production, which would reduce their need for imports if realized. Some are estimating that there could be a combined additional 7 mmt of production compared to earlier estimates.
• Argentine wheat export values are still said to be the world’s cheapest, around $215/mt. For reference, the Black Sea region is around $220, while offers at the U.S. Gulf are closer to $240.
• Recent frigid temperatures and frosts in the Black Sea area are not expected to have caused much, if any, damage to their winter wheat crop. Good snow cover is said to have provided enough insulation to protect the wheat.
• According to a report from the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, hard red spring wheat stocks in Wisconsin and Minnesota warehouses are up 24.3% year over year at 16.267 mb as of February 1.
• Warmer temperatures are forecast for the U.S. Plains over the next 10 days, running 10–15°F above normal. Accelerated snowmelt could leave crops more exposed should another cold snap materialize.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV milk futures were sharply higher thanks to increased demand and expanded trading limits. April futures closed 95 cents higher to $18.31.
• Spot butter improved to $1.6075/lb, up 2.75 cents on the day. Powder gained 3.75 cents to go home at $1.5375/lb.
• Class III milk futures were higher on Wednesday due to global demand increasing and a stronger cheese trade. March futures increased 50 cents to $16.98.
• Spot cheese was seen gaining 2.6250 cents to close at $1.43375/lb. Whey tacked on two pennies to finish at $0.7250/lb.
• Yesterday’s Global Dairy Trade auction event improved 6.70% from the previous auction. Cheese, butter, skim and whole milk powder were all higher as well.
• There was a recommendation today for both the DairyFixed and DairyFlex models to cover the remaining 50% of Class IV milk for both Q3 and Q4 2026.

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Author

Brandon Doherty