CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buying strength across the grain markets supported corn futures on Thursday, with contracts trading at their highest levels of the current price move. March futures gained 5 ½ cents to 435, while the May futures added 6 cents to 443. Going into the end of the week, March futures have traded 6 ¾ cents higher on the week.
• USDA released the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending January 29, exporters reported new sales of 1.041 MMT (41.0 mb). The total was within expectations, but corn sales were down 37% from last week and 42% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn again last week.
• Market year to date for corn sales is ahead of the current pace to reach the USDA export target of 3.2 billion bushels by approximately 290 mb, but that gap has narrowed from 350 mb last week as export demand for U.S. corn has slowed slightly.
• For near-term weather risk, the corn market is monitoring key growing areas in southern Brazil and Argentina. Forecasts call for well-above-average temperatures and low humidity across the region. While a storm system this weekend could provide some relief, precipitation coverage and totals will be critical.
• Corn futures appeared to test resistance near the peak of the rally, with prices likely capped by producer selling and the outlook for ample supplies.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher for a second consecutive session, fueled by follow-through momentum from President Trump’s comments yesterday regarding potential soybean exports to China. Additional support came from hotter weather across southern South America, which could impact yields.
• March soybeans gained 20 cents today to $11.12-1/4 cents but did not take out yesterday’s high. Since yesterday, soybeans are up 46-1/2 cents and are at their highest level since December 8. November soybeans gained 11 cents to $10.98-1/2. March soybean meal was up $7.00 to $303.20, and March soybean oil lost 0.01 cents to 55.65 cents.
• Today’s export sales report was uneventful with soybean sales showing an increase of 16.1 million bushels for 25/26 and 14,700 bushels for 26/27. This was a marketing year low and was down 47% from last week and 72% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 51.0 mb were above the 25.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• More bullish momentum likely came from news that the U.S. Treasury has released its proposed rules for the 45z tax credit. This increased biofuel use of soybeans and corn as biofuel makers will be able to access a $1 per gallon credit for low carbon transportation fuels, including aviation fuel.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat halted the recent slide and closed higher across all three classes. With little fresh supportive news, the move appeared to be a technical bounce influenced by strength in soybeans. March Chicago gained 8-1/2 cents to 535-1/4, Kansas City was up 8-1/4 cents at 538-1/2, and MIAX closed 5-1/2 cents higher at 571-1/2.
• The USDA reported an increase of 13.7 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and 1.5 mb to 26/27. Shipments last week reached 14.8 mb, but that is below the 17.1 mb pace needed per week to reach their 900 mb export goal. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 802 mb, which is up 18% versus last year.
• According to the USDA, as of February 3, an estimated 43% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions – this is up 2% from the previous week. During the same timeframe, spring wheat areas in drought increased 1% to 11%.
• The Indian government is reported to have removed limits on the amount of wheat that traders, wholesalers, and retailers can hold, though weekly stock declarations will remain in place. The restrictions, first implemented in May 2025 to curb hoarding and rising prices, were lifted amid signs of improving domestic supplies and easing prices.
• A vessel carrying 65,000 mt of Argentine wheat is expected to soon arrive in China and represents the first bulk commercial shipment of wheat from the South American nation to China since 1997. Both countries are hoping this could be the start of a new, expanding trade route as China attempts to diversify their suppliers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV futures exploded higher again today with March futures up $1.11 to $19.10.
• Spot butter jumped 10.25 cents on 9 trades to move to $1.71/lb. Powder was up to a new recent high of $1.60/lb after gaining 6.25 cents.
• Class III milk contracts were stronger in the nearby and down in the deferred, but March settled 50 cents higher at $17.48.
• Spot cheese was up 2 cents to move to $1.45375/lb while whey was up a half cent.
• Today’s Dairy Products Production report had cheese production up 6.7% YoY while butter climbed 2.0% from December of 2024.

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Author

John Heinberg