CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• General weakness in the grain markets pressure corn prices as the market was squaring positions for Tuesday’s USDA report. March corn futures softened 1 ½ cents to 428 ¾ and May futures slipped 1 ¾ cents to 437.
• The USDA will release its next WASDE report on Tuesday. Expectations are for minimal changes, as the USDA may defer more meaningful balance sheet adjustments until the March report. Consensus looks for a slight increase in corn carryout.  Some focus will be paid to any potential South American adjustments and global supplies.
• USDA release weekly export inspections on Monday morning. For the week ending February 5, USDA inspected 1.308 MMT (51.5 mb) for shipment, which was above the high end of expectations. Those the pace has been slowing; total inspections are still running 47% ahead of last year.
• Brazil first crop corn harvest has been lagging due to weather restriction. As of last week, corn harvest has reached 17% versus the 5-year average of 22%. As corn and soybean harvest progress, Brazil farmers quickly rotate to planting the key second crop of corn.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day following through with Friday’s losses. Pressure likely came from overbought conditions along with improved chances for rain in Argentina’s forecast. March soybeans lost 4-1/2 cents to $11.10-3/4 while November gained 1-3/4 cents to $10.95-3/4. March soybean meal lost $5.80 to $297.80 and bean oil gained 1.36 cents to 56.69 cents.
• Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 41.7 mb; the total 25/26 inspections figure now stands at 850 mb, down 34% from last year. This is behind the USDA’s projected pace, with total 25/26 exports forecasted at 1.575 bb, down 16% from the previous year.
• For tomorrow’s WASDE report, the soybean numbers are expected to be largely neutral to perhaps a touch bearish. US 25/26 carryout is pegged at 348 mb, down 2 mb from January. However, global carryout is expected to rise 1.1 mmt to 125.5 mmt. Additionally, production in Brazil is anticipated to increase from 178.0 to 179.2 mmt, while Argentina may fall from 48.5 to 48.1 mmt.
• USDA announced a flash sale of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 25/26 marketing year. The sale followed comments from President Donald Trump last week on Truth Social urging China to purchase an additional 8 mmt of U.S. soybeans this marketing year, on top of the 12 mmt already committed. There has been no formal confirmation of an additional commitment by China.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures finished mixed to mostly lower today, pressured by a weaker MATIF close and the fact that US wheat remains uncompetitive on the world marketplace. March Chicago slipped 1 cent to 528-3/4, Kansas City was down 2-1/2 at 528-3/4, and MIAX gained 1/2 cent to 570-1/2.
• Weekly wheat export inspections reached 21.3 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 637 mb, up 21% versus last year. Inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports for 25/26 are projected at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Tomorrow will feature the monthly WASDE report, which is expected to be largely neutral. The average pre-report estimate for US 25/26 wheat ending stocks comes in at 916 mb, which would be down 10 mb from the January report. Meanwhile, global 25/26 wheat carryout is anticipated to remain unchanged at 278.3 mmt, the biggest in five years if realized. The reason cited for the decline is a slow export pace, caused by Russian attacks on ports and energy facilities.
• The Ukrainian wheat export forecast from APK Inform has been reduced by 2.2 mmt to 14.5 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a 14 mmt figure.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $231/mt which is unchanged from the week before.
• Friday afternoon’s CFTC commitments of traders report indicated that for the week ending February 3, managed funds reduced their net short positions in both Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures. They purchased nearly 13,000 Chi and 1,500 KC contracts, both representing roughly 14% weekly reductions on those short positions.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers were active in Class III milk futures to begin the week as the second month contract dropped 47 cents to move to $16.63.
• Spot cheese was 1.3750 cents lower to $1.4425/lb today while whey was unchanged at $0.73/lb.
• Class IV futures were down heavily with March falling $1.09 to settle at $17.76.
• Both spot butter and powder were weaker with butter giving back 8.50 cents and powder falling 3.50 cents.

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Author

Brandon Doherty