CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong selling in the wheat market pressured corn futures lower on the session. May corn futures lost 4 ¾ cents on the session. Despite the weakness to end the week, May corn futures gained 12 ½ cents for the week, posting a bullish hook reversal off weekly lows. This was the first time in 4 weeks corn traded higher, and only the 3rd time in the past 11 weeks.
• December corn has an improved technical picture as prices held support at the key 450 level this week.  Weekly charts posted a bullish key reversal as December corn futures traded 9 ¾ cents higher on the week.  Follow through strength next week will be key.
• The March contract is in delivery, but deliveries against the futures have been very small.  Zero contracts on Thursday, and only 3 on Friday. The lack of deliveries is helping support the front end of the corn market. The past two sessions have seen some light bull spreading.
• China rumors have been a factor in the corn market this week. Talk of Chinese purchases of Ukrainian corn at lower prices has limited the corn market, but later in the week, whispers that China was looking for some corn exports out of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) has helped support prices. No flash sales have been announced and the market may have to wait until next week’s exports sales report. Regardless, those sales will likely be light and not move the demand needle much.
• Managed funds have been likely covering the record short position they hold in the corn market. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report had funds holding a net short position over 340,000 contracts. The updated Commitment of Traders report will be released on Friday afternoon.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in another day of two-sided trade that saw prices lower earlier in the day before rebounding higher. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil was lower despite a sharp gain in crude oil. Despite today’s rally, soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past week.
• The CME reported a large number of deliveries against the March contract yesterday and reported more today with 502 against March soybeans, just 1 in soybean meal, and 37 against soybean oil. Today’s deliveries did not pressure prices lower like they did yesterday.
• For the week, May soybeans gained 9-1/2 cents but lost 92 cents during the month of February. May soybean meal gained $4.30 on the week while losing $34.90 in February, and May soybean oil gained 0.56 cents for the week while losing 1.33 cents last month. Over the past week, funds likely exited a portion of their net short position ahead of first notice day, and a temporary bottom could be in.
• Next week the USDA will release its WASDE report and trade will look to see if adjustments are made to South America’s expected production. Argentina is expected to produce double what was produced in the drought last year, and Brazil was estimated to produce 156 mmt of soybeans in the USDA’s February update despite most other analysts estimating the number closer to 149 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit losses across all three futures classes today. Weakness originated from Paris milling wheat futures closing sharply lower, with losses of 3.75 to 8.00 euros per mt. This is the lowest it has traded since August 2020 and comes even though their crop ratings are relatively poor. As of February 26, just 68% of the French wheat crop was rated good to very good. This is a large decline from the 95% rating at the same time last year.
• To add to pressure today, Russian FOB values are said to be remaining steady at $209 per mt, keeping pressure on exports, and thus, futures. SovEcon has also said that Russian February wheat exports could be a record due to their very competitive prices. The exports are estimated at 3.8 mmt, which compares to 3.0 mmt last year and the 2.6 mmt average. As an aside, they are projecting 23/24 wheat exports at 48.6 mmt versus the USDA at 51 mmt.
• According to the European Commission, the EU 2023 wheat production was slightly trimmed. Harvest is estimated at 125.6 mmt compared to 125.9 mmt previously. Additionally, the wheat import forecast was increased by 0.5 mmt to 17.5 mmt. On a bearish note, though, India’s ag ministry has stated that their wheat production may exceed last year’s 110.6 mmt, with estimates of 112 mmt of production for the 23/24 season.
• Ukraine is said to have exported 8 mmt of cargo in February, with 5.2 mmt of that being ag goods. Reportedly, 113 vessels are now in Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Chornomorsk ports and are waiting to be loaded with about 3 mmt more cargo.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese was the only product to see a gain week-over-week climbing 1.75 cents to go home at $1.60/lb. The whey market continued to fade Friday dropping another quarter to close at $0.4250/lb.
• Class III milk saw another day of double-digit losses led by April and May futures which saw losses of 39 cents and 33 cents respectively. The 2024 Class III average lost over 45 cents this week after the great rally we saw the week prior. The 2024 Class III average now sits at $17.54/cwt.
• Spot butter lost 0.75 cents heading into the weekend at $2.7575/lb while the powder market gained 0.75 cents closing at $1.1975/lb.
• Class IV futures were mixed on the day with some of the 2025 contracts seeing positive gains. The 2024 Class IV average was unchanged at $20.48/cwt.

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Author

Brandon Doherty