CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted marginal gains to start the week, supported by a strong wheat market, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust export inspections.
• Weekly corn export inspections totaled 65.3 MB for the week ending March 13, keeping total inspections 33% ahead of last year, while the USDA projects only a 7% increase. Analysts expect USDA export demand adjustments later in the marketing year.
• May corn futures are struggling to break resistance at the 100-day moving average, potentially keeping speculators selling into rallies.
• Brazil’s key second-crop corn planting is nearly complete, but a drier forecast in Mato Grosso could impact crop development.
• U.S. corn will likely stay competitive in the global export market until the June time window as bids are limited or at a higher value for global competitors until then. U.S. export sales and shipments are running well ahead of the pace needed to reach export targets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the two front months lower and deferred contracts higher in quiet trade. Prices faded from overnight highs with little bullish fundamental news to drive the complex. Soybean meal ended the day slightly lower while soybean oil was higher.
• Today’s NOPA crush report saw soybean crush for February at 177.87 million bushels which was well below the average trade guess of 188.0 mb. This compares to 200.38 mb in the month of January and was also down from last year at this time. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.503 billion pounds, which was above trade estimates and the prior month.
• In Brazil, 97.3% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop was harvested as of last Friday, with dry weather in the 10-day forecast. Production may fall slightly below initial estimates.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 19,943 contracts of soybeans, which left them with a net short position of 15,544 contracts. They were sellers of soybean oil by 23,521 contracts and buyers of meal by 13,317 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat made double-digit gains led by Kansas City futures, as more weather premium is being factored in. Warmth, dryness, and strong winds in the U.S. southern Plains remain a key focus, with 27% of U.S. winter wheat in drought—double last year’s level. A weaker U.S. dollar and higher Matif wheat prices also provided support.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 18.1 mb bring the total 24/25 inspections figure to 601 mb, which is up 18% from last year. Inspections are steady with the USDA’s estimated pace; they are estimating 24/25 wheat exports at 835 mb, up 18% from the year prior.
• President Trump has indicated that he will speak with Putin tomorrow. This discussion will reportedly center around ending the Ukraine war.
• According to SovEcon, the Russian government wants to keep their domestic flour and bread prices low – therefore they may continue to cut wheat exports. In theory this could mean more demand for U.S. wheat, which would be bullish.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite steady bidding in the spot market last week, sellers returned on Monday and pushed cheese and butter back down. Cheese fell 5.625c to $1.6350/lb while butter lost 4c to $2.3025/lb.
• Milk futures reacted negatively to the aggressive spot market selling. April Class III lost 40c to $17.16 while April Class IV was down 17c to $18.18.
• The Q2 Class III milk average closed down into new lows for the move as premium is taken out of nearby contracts.
• It should be noted that both spot whey and powder held steady today, which is notable since both markets have been under heavy selling pressure lately.
• This week’s news events: Global Dairy Trade auction on Tuesday and US Milk Production report on Friday.

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Author

Brandon Doherty