TFM Daily Market Summary 3-17-2026

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn futures were mixed with a consolidation type of trade on Tuesday as prices looked for direction after Monday’s market weakness. The negative influence in the wheat markets limited corn futures during the session. May corn futures were unchanged at 454, July was ¼ cent lower to 465 ½.
  • President Trump announced that his proposed meeting with Chinese President Xi will be moved back a few weeks, towards the end of April. The uncertainty regarding the meeting pressured grain markets on Monday.
  • President Trump announced a “Celebration of Agriculture” to be happening on the White House lawn on March 27 as he prepares to announce the biofuels mandates for feed additives. The more pro-biofuels type policy helps support both corn and soybean markets.
  • Brazil corn planting is behind pace historically. In most key growing areas, some of the corn will likely miss the key weather growing windows needed and could reduce production. Regardless, the Brazil second crop corn is still expected to be relatively large at with a range of estimates from 107-115 mmt.
  • Argentina corn crop is starting to be harvested, which will provide some competition against U.S. corn on the global export market. USDA estimates the Argentina crop at 52MMT, up 4% from last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with only mild gains in the front month and bigger gains in the deferred contracts as prices gained back some of yesterday’s sharp losses. Soybean oil led the complex higher today. May soybeans gained 1-3/4 cents to $11.57 while November gained 10-1/2 cents to $11.31-1/4. May soybean meal lost $0.50 to $311.70, and May soybean oil gained 2.03 cents to 65.97 cents.
  • Some support likely stemmed from President Trump’s comments yesterday evening, indicating he was looking to delay the meeting with China’s President Xi by “a month or so.” In the prior session, funds likely liquidated long positions on concerns the meeting might not occur without Chinese cooperation in the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, a trade deal that would benefit soybeans remains uncertain, particularly with Brazilian supplies currently priced at a significant discount to U.S. offers.
  • The NOPA February soybean crush report exceeded all trade expectations at 208.79 million bushels crushed, and soy oil stocks reached their highest level since April 2020. Crush was up 17.4% from 177.87 mb at this time a year ago.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections were better than expected but still sluggish with inspections totaling 36.6 million bushels. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 1031 mb which would be down 28% from the previous year. The USDA estimates soybeans export for 25/26 at 1.575 billion bushels.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Despite corn and soybeans attempting a recovery today, wheat continued to bleed across all three classes. Managed funds were estimated to have sold about 9,500 contracts of SRW wheat yesterday, with follow through liquidation today likely contributing to the lower trade. Nevertheless, the wheat complex will continue to be sensitive to geopolitics and northern hemisphere weather. In the May contract, Chicago fell 7-1/2 cents to 589-3/4, Kansas City declined 9-3/4 cents to 606-3/4, and MIAX lost 9-3/4 cents to 624-1/4.
  • The U.S. wheat crop is showing signs of potential freeze damage in the southern Plains. Additionally, the region is expected to face near-record high temperatures next week, with very little moisture in the forecast. Extreme temperature swings are never ideal for crop development.
  • Updated state reports from the southern plains this week indicate declining conditions, with Kansas rated good to excellent down 4% to 52%, Oklahoma down 6% to 18%, and Texas down 1% to 15%. Despite the weekly decline, Oklahoma’s 52% good-to-excellent rating is its second highest in the past 10 years, according to Ag Resource.
  • Flour mills from South Korea are reported to have purchased 87,000 mt of milling wheat in their tender, to be sourced from the U.S. In related news, Jordan is said to have bought 60,000 mt of optional origin wheat, out of their 120,000 mt tender, paying $277.50/mt on a CNF basis.
  • Ukraine exports remain slow at 9.41 million tons so far this marketing year, down from 12.73 million a year ago, while Russian export prices have increased by $2–4 this week to $238–240 per ton, the highest level since August. Global supplies are still anticipated to remain elevated through the spring.
  • Ukraine has begun planting spring grains, according to the UGA traders union. So far this is said to include 5,400 hectares of wheat. Ukraine has not yet officially stated the total area intended for spring grain sowing this year. However, their spring wheat planted area is typically much smaller than their winter wheat area.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk finished stronger for the third day in a row, despite light volume traded.
  • The Q3 2026 Class III milk average closed into new highs, while Q4 2026 Class III had its best finish since July 2025.
  • Buyers took block cheese up 3c to $1.59/lb while barrels added a penny to $1.54/lb. There were no loads traded.
  • The Global Dairy Trade price index was bid higher for the sixth auction in a row, gaining 0.10% to 1,273 points.
  • Each Class IV contract from April through June settled over the $20.00 threshold. Butter was a bit softer in GDT while the powders were mixed.

 

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Author

Amanda Brill

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