CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures stayed in consolidative trade with a narrow 4 cent trading range. The corn market seemed stuck between the selling pressure in the wheat market and the strength in the soybean market during the session. The May contract is still struggling with 440 overhead resistance, which has been holding the market in check.
• Weather forecasts for the US Corn Belt have turned wetter with combinations of rain or snow falling over the central Corn Belt. If realized, this precipitation could provide beneficial moisture to areas in need. This could help build a good base for the planting of the 24/25 corn crop in the US.
• Ethanol production last week averaged 1.046 million barrels a day. This was up 2.1% over the previous week and 4.9% over last year. Corn usage for the week was estimated at 103.82 mb, and is still ahead of the pace projected by the USDA.
• Weekly export sales will be reported on Thursday morning. Corn sales have been supportive, and expectations are for new sales to range from 800,000 – 1.4 mmt for last week. The previous week saw new sales of 1.283 mmt.
• Brazilian weather looks suitable overall for crop development of the second (safrinha) crop corn as planting finishes. There are regional reports on stress due to heat, but the weather trend still looks favorable.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans rallied into the end of the day for a sharp gain driven by technical buying, Argentinian weather that may be too wet, a flash sale that was reported this morning, and higher soybean meal and soybean oil.
• May soybeans closed above the 12-dollar mark for the first time since the beginning of February, and short covering likely kicked in once soybeans rallied above the 50-day moving average at 1195. The funds have slowly unwound a portion of their net short position over the past few weeks and no longer hold a record short position.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. Overall, soybean sales have been sluggish as Brazil harvests their soy crop and maintains the competitive advantage in export sales.
• In South America, the weather has been good overall with abundant rain, but Argentina may be receiving too much rain which could be supporting soybean meal prices. Today’s rally could spark a large round of farmer selling in South America tomorrow, which could cause prices to sell off.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite the strong close for soybeans, it did not do much to pull wheat higher. All three US wheat classes posted losses with Chicago leading the way down. Part of the weakness stemmed from a lower close for Matif futures, a general lack of friendly news, as well as a continued higher trend in the US Dollar Index.
• Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat, and today it was reported that Romania had the lowest offer at $232.50/mt FOB. Results of that tender are expected this afternoon.
• In other news, it was reported that Egypt will allot $2.66 billion for bread subsidies as part of the 24/25 budget. These subsidies provide reduced prices of bread and other staple foods to over half of their population. Egypt is a major wheat importer so this may provide some support to the market if they import more wheat.
• According to Ukraine’s Agricultural Ministry, winter crops as of March 15 are mostly satisfactory to good. Ukraine also planted a total of 4.4 million hectares of winter wheat, which accounts for 95% of their total wheat production.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A 2.50c lower offer in the spot whey market and a 0.25c drop in spot cheese kept Class III milk futures on the defensive on Wednesday.
• April ’24 Class III fell 12c lower back to $16.17 while May was down 22c to $16.48. Class IV was mostly neutral across the board.
• The drop in whey puts it down to $0.4050/lb, its lowest close since January 17th.
• The powder market fell 0.75c to $1.1175/lb, closing down to a new low for the year.
• US Milk production in February was up 2.20% from a year ago, not factoring in for the leap year. Total US dairy cows are now down 89,000 head from a year ago.

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Author

Brandon Doherty