CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn closed lower, erasing most of yesterday’s gains, as a stronger U.S. dollar and lingering tariff concerns from Canada and Mexico pressured the market. May 2025 futures dipped back below the 100-day moving average but managed to retain modest gains for the week.
• Traders are closely awaiting the release of the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, scheduled for March 31. Expectations are for a large increase in U.S. corn acres compared to last year.
• The BAGE held their Argentine production estimates unchanged at 49 mmt vs the USDA’s estimate of 50 mmt as harvest progress has nearly reached 14%.
• Tariff tensions are set to escalate next week as the April 2 deadline nears and negotiations gain momentum. Analysts expect a swift resolution, given Canada and Mexico’s reliance on U.S. trade. Meanwhile, Northern Mexico’s persistent drought underscores the region’s continued need for U.S. corn imports.
• Brazil is expected to receive between ¾ and 2 ½ inches of rain through next Thursday. While this rainfall will be beneficial for the development of other crops, it may delay ongoing harvest for both soybeans and the first corn crop. In contrast, Argentina is expected to experience a few more days of dry weather, allowing the harvest to continue without disruption.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower on little fresh news apart from poor export demand and an ongoing record large Brazilian harvest. Bullish news could come next week if soybean acres are significantly reduced in the Planting Intentions report. Soybean meal ended the day higher while soybean oil was lower.
• A grain exchange in Argentina has cut their estimate for soybean production in the country by 1 million tons as a result of drought conditions. Estimates are now at 48.6 mmt which is slightly lower than the USDA’s most recent estimate.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 6-1/4 cents to $10.09-3/4, while November soybeans lost 10-1/4 cents at $10.07-3/4. May soybean meal was down $5.60 at $300.30 and May soybean oil gained 0.42 cents at 42.01.
• Abiove has estimated the Brazilian soybean crop for 2025 0.5% lower at 170.9 mmt compared to 171.7 mmt the previous month, but this output would still be up 11% from last year. This estimate is near the USDA’s 169.0 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mostly higher, despite the firming U.S. dollar and a lower close for Paris milling wheat futures. Increased drought readings for much of U.S. Midwest and Plains states are helping to support the market.
• The International Grains Council raised its 2025/26 global grain stockpile estimate to 578 mmt, up 1 mmt year-over-year. However, wheat stocks are expected to decline from 265 mmt to 259 mmt.
• The extended forecast for April calls for widespread warm and dry conditions. This could affect the development of the U.S. winter wheat crop due to a lack of soil moisture. However, this should also mitigate concerns over frost or freeze damage.
• The Ukrainian first deputy farm minister has said that their winter crops are in satisfactory condition. Furthermore, weather swings in February and so far in March were not enough to cause any significant crop damage.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were mixed on the day for 2025 contracts. The June contract was down 8 cents to $17.20 while the July contract improved 2 cents to $17.87.
• Spot cheese fell 1.6250 cents to close at $1.57625/lb while whey tacked on a couple of pennies to close at $0.50/lb
• Class IV milk futures saw losses in March through October contracts. The biggest loss on the day came from the April contract, which was down 14 cents, closing at $18.00.
• Spot butter improved 0.75 cents to $2.3025 but still finished the week down 4 cents. Powder lost half a cent to $1.1450/lb on 9 loads traded.
• February Milk Production came in at 17.725 billion pounds, down 2.5% from last year.

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Author

John Heinberg