CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite an announced corn sale and strength in the wheat market, the selling pressure in the soybean market limited upside potential in the corn futures on Friday. The May contract finished softer, still tied to the 440 level on the charts. For the week, May futures did finish 2 ½ cents higher.
• May corn futures remain in a tight overall trading range, as they continue to consolidate. Since March 7^th, May corn futures have been tied to the 440 price level with closes ranging from as high as 441 ¾ to a low of 433 during that time frame.
• The USDA announced a flash sale on corn to Mexico. Mexico continues to be a strong buyer of US corn, purchasing another 10.4 mb (263,000 mt), split with 173,000 mt of old crop and 90,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.
• The Buenos Aires Gran exchange lowered their projection for the Argentina corn crop to 54 mmt, down 2.5 mmt from their last forecast. The reduction was due to dry weather in February and the impact of plant pathogens. Even with the reduction, this will be the largest projected corn crop in Argentina since 2018-19.
• The CFTC will release the next Commitment of Traders report this afternoon. Managed money has been exiting their overall short position in recent weeks with the recent price strength. Last week, managed funds held a net short position of 255,982 contracts, up nearly 84,000 contracts for the low three weeks ago.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower to finish out the week after showing promise earlier on by rallying above the 50-day moving average. Poor export sales and the ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest has made sustaining rallies difficult. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 5 ¾ cents, November soybeans lost 3 ¾ cents, May soybean meal gained $4.40, and May soybean oil lost 1.78 cents. Funds were likely exiting some of their short position this week, but the short covering was met by increased farmer selling.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be 70% complete by this weekend and some work could be delayed due to rain. In Argentina, soybean crop ratings came in with 31% rated good to excellent and 16% rated poor to very poor. Argentinian crop conditions could deteriorate further if the country continues to receive too much rain.
• Yesterday afternoon, Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its estimates for the 23/24 corn crop but kept soybean production unchanged at 52.5 mmt. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, so any issues in the growing season could be friendly to meal.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat pushed higher again today with a positive close for all three US classes. Support came from Paris milling wheat futures which rallied sharply and finished near session highs, gaining 5.75 to 7.50 Euros per metric ton. The higher close for US wheat also came despite the US Dollar rising again today to the highest level since mid-February.
• May Chicago wheat broke through technical resistance around the 21-day moving average, which may allow some room to run before the next level of resistance around the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Some of today’s firmness in wheat may also be tied to the EU imposing tariffs on Russian grain imports.
• Egypt has confirmed that future purchases of wheat will be through tenders, and no longer through private negotiations. The use of private deals began a few years ago, likely due to supply disruptions caused by the Ukraine war. It is unclear if this change is a temporary measure in which they will return to private transactions again, or if this is a permanent.
• According to the USDA, as of March 19, an estimated 12% of the US winter wheat crop is experiencing drought. This represents a 2% improvement from 14% the week prior. As for spring wheat, the area in drought remained steady at an estimated 30% for the same timeframe.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheddar saw a drop of 2.50 cents today to close at $1.40875/lb. This was the lowest weekly close since mid-December for spot cheese. Spot Whey continued its path lower, dropping below $0.40/lb at $0.3950/lb.
• Class III products continue to put pressure on prices as the 2024 Class III average lost another 10 cents this week closing at $17.15/cwt. April and May futures contract continued making new lows contributing to the weakness in Class III prices.
• Spot butter for the week lost 1.50 cents to go home at $2.8075/lb while powder saw the biggest drop among all products at 5.50 cents this week to close at $1.1075/lb.
• Class IV prices were little moved on the day thanks to the butter market which continues to stay above the $2.80/lb level. The 2024 Class III average was unchanged on the session at $20.33/cwt.

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Author

Amanda Brill