CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Today’s corn session closed modestly higher, posting minimal gains as escalating global tensions, particularly in the Middle East, intensified overnight and remained front and center for traders. May corn finished up 0.4 cents at 4.46¼, while July corn gained 1.2 cents to settle at 4.55½.
• Crude oil has risen to its highest level since mid-2025, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East as Iran has threatened to attack or block ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a significant supply disruption. This is also leading to a jump in fertilizer prices as a significant amount of global fertilizer trade goes through the Stright of Hormuz.
• USDA confirmed earlier today the sale of 196,000 metric tons of U.S. corn for delivery to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• Safras revised its Brazil total corn production estimate lower to 141.71 million metric tons, down from 142.88 million previously. In contrast, StoneX maintains a more conservative outlook, projecting the crop at 136.0 million metric tons, up slightly from 135.5 million in its prior forecast.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after more volatile trade driven by the war with Iran. Trade was sharply higher overnight before falling to 5-6 cent losses but recovered into the close. Higher crude oil has supported soybean oil, which has supported soybeans. The uncertainty of the war has caused volatility in all commodities, but crude oil has continued to move higher.
• May soybeans closed 6-1/2 cents higher to $11.70-1/2 but did not take out yesterday’s high. May futures reached as high as $11.83 overnight. November soybeans gained 2-3/4 cents to $11.31-1/2, May soybean meal gained $1.80 to $314.70, and May soybean oil gained 0.08 cents to 62.82 cents but did not take out yesterday’s high.
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is estimated to be 39% complete as of February 26 which compares to 30% done a week ago and 50% complete a year ago. AgRural has lowered its production estimate to 178 mmt from 181 mmt and StoneX has lowered its estimate by 2.1% due to yield losses caused by weather.
• Argentina’s President Javier Milei announced yesterday that the country would continue to lower its export taxes “in a responsible manner”. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal, and this move would likely take more export demand away from the US which pressured soybean meal sharply.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures finished mixed, with Chicago posting losses while Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts ended higher. Strength in the U.S. Dollar Index and forecasts calling for beneficial rains in U.S. SRW growing areas likely weighed on the Chicago class. In May futures, Chicago fell 3-1/4 cents to $5.74, Kansas City gained 3-1/2 cents to $5.78-1/4, and Minneapolis (MIAX) rose 3-1/4 cents to $6.13-1/4.
• Meanwhile, easing concerns over U.S.–China relations provided some support to the hard red winter and spring wheat markets, as reports indicated that U.S. and Chinese diplomats are set to meet in Paris later this month for trade negotiations.
• The Australian Department of Agriculture has increased their estimate of 25/26 wheat production to 36 mmt. If realized this would be the third largest crop on record. For reference, the USDA is estimating the crop at 37 mmt.
• European Union soft wheat exports are reported to have reached 15.57 mmt as of March 1. This is an increase of 8% year over year.
• After Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian port in Novorossiysk there were reports of injuries, as well as damage to buildings and infrastructure. In particular, an oil terminal, which loads 700,000 barrels of crude per day, was set on fire. This disruption could affect both energy and grain exports in the Black Sea region.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were higher on the day led by a slightly higher cheese trade. April futures gained 27 cents to $16.50.
• Spot cheese improved 1.25 cents to $1.5450/lb. Whey prices were unchanged from the day prior at $0.6275/lb.
• Class IV futures were seen pulling back on the day despite a higher move in butter. April futures lost 43 cents to close at $19.53.
• Spot butter added 3.25 cents today to add to the massive move higher so far this week. Butter currently sits at $2.1375/lb.
• Powder prices continue to pull back from the multi-year highs, losing 0.75 cents to $0.6275/lb.
• Today’s Global Dairy Trade auction event improved 5.70% from the prior auction to 1,271 points. Cheese, butter, skim and whole milk powder were all higher as well.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty