CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn charts posted a weak close technically as prices posted the lowest close in nearly two weeks, as long liquidation and position squaring were triggered before the USDA Grain Stock and Perspective Planning report on Tuesday.
• USDA announced another small flash export sale of corn on Monday morning. Unknown destinations stepped into the export market for 145,000 MT (5.7 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year.
• Weekly corn export shipments remain strong. For the week ending March 26, U.S. exporters shipped 1.790 MMT (70.5 mb). Total export shipments are running 36% ahead of last year’s pace.
• The USDA will release the Prospective Planting report on Tuesday, March 31. Analyst estimates are for a total of 94.4 million acres for the 2026-27 crop. This is down 4.4 million acres from last year. Last year on the March Planting Intentions report, the USDA forecasted corn acres at 95.3 million acres.
• The USDA Grain Stocks report was released in conjunction with the Prospective Acres report on Tuesday. Analysts’ expectations are for the report to show corn stocks at 9.104 billion bushels, up 960 mb from last year. With the strong demand tone, the market will be looking closely at the usage for the quarter, especially projected feed usage.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day but settled near unchanged despite sharply higher soybean oil. May soybeans gained ½ cent to $11.59-3/4, while November was unchanged at $11.44. May soybean meal was down $0.40 to $314.90 while soybean oil was up 1.06 cents to 68.47 cents on optimism over the biofuel announcement.
• Today’s Export Inspection report was soft for soybeans, totaling 21.5 million bushels for the week ending March 26, and this was within trade estimate guesses. Total inspections for 25/26 are now at 1.094 billion bushels, which is down 27% from the previous year.
• Friday’s biofuel blending announcement was very friendly for soybean oil, but traders sold the fact following the announcement. The EPA announced that bio-mass based diesel volume requirements would be 8.86 billion RINs compared to the proposed 7.12 billion this year. This was up significantly from expectations. This will create much more demand for bean oil but will likely leave excess soybean meal from increased crushing.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 4,093 contracts, which left them with a net long position of 197,904 contracts. They bought 265 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 122,621 contracts, and bought 24,039 contracts of meal, which increased their net long position to 107,932 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed, with Kansas City under pressure as improved Plains moisture forecasts weighed on HRW prices. Additional headwinds included a $1.10 premium of U.S. HRW over Russian offers and a stronger U.S. Dollar Index, reducing export competitiveness. May Chicago wheat gained 2 cents to $6.07, Kansas City fell 6-1/2 cents to $6.26-1/4, and Minneapolis rose 3-3/4 cents to $6.52.
• Weekly wheat export inspections reached 13.4 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 746 mb, up 17% from last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s estimated pace; total 25/26 exports are estimated at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Tomorrow will feature the Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting reports. The average pre-report estimate for all wheat stocks comes in at 1.295 bb, compared to 1.237 bb a year ago. Meanwhile, acres are projected at 44.786 ma versus 45.328 ma last year.
• Friday afternoon’s CFTC report indicated that money managers purchased over 10,000 wheat contracts across the three classes, for the week ended March 24. This brings their net long position in wheat to nearly 23,500 contracts, which is the largest since July of 2022.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $238/mt on a FOB basis, which was steady with the previous week. Additionally, IKAR anticipates Russia’s wheat exports in Marh will total near 4.6 mmt. In related news, the Russian ag ministry has said that 97% of winter crops are in good or satisfactory condition.
• A tropical cyclone hit western Australia over the weekend, bringing much needed rain to this area, though eastern regions remain dry. Looking ahead, this week’s precipitation is expected to be limited, and will favor the western areas again ahead of wheat planting. In the east, more rain is needed before wheat sowing.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV futures ran into some selling pressure on Monday as the strong run-up to $21.00 likely brought about some farmer selling or profit taking.
• Buyers were a bit quieter in the spot trade, but powder was once again able to close green, adding 0.75c to $1.93/lb on 2 loads traded. A flat butter trade along with red butter futures may have set the tone, though.
• Despite a 1.50c higher bid in the cheese block market, Class III futures ended a bit softer. Likely following Class IV’s lead or maybe some uncertainty about the upcoming Dairy Products report on Thursday.
• The spread between Class III and IV remains extremely wide. With March futures about to go off the board, April will move into the front month with III at $17.24 while IV holds much higher at $20.87.
• Tuesday is the last trading day for March 2026 dairy futures.

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Author

John Heinberg