The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 3, in Observance of Good Friday

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market posted a muted response Tuesday despite strength in other grains, as the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report showed larger-than-expected corn acreage for the 2026/27 crop. May corn futures gained 2 cents to 457 ¾, while July futures added ¾ cents to 468 ¼.
• The USDA estimated 2026/27 corn plantings at 95.33 million acres, roughly 1 million acres above trade expectations. While this is down from last year’s 98.8 million acres, the combination of large existing supplies and ample acreage potential limited bullish price reaction.
• The Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed March 1 corn stocks at 9.02 billion bushels held by producers and commercial facilities. While slightly below expectations, the figure still represents a record level and is 880 million bushels above last year.
• Geopolitical headlines also influenced outside markets Tuesday. Reports that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian may be open to ending the conflict triggered selling in crude oil and buying in equities. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode for any tangible progress toward de-escalation.
• Traders may now turn their focus to fund positioning following the report. In the latest Commitment of Traders data, managed money increased its net-long corn position by roughly 24% over the past week, yet prices showed limited upside response. With planting season approaching, higher acreage projections, and record stocks, the market may be vulnerable to potential fund long liquidation.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following a relatively friendly Planting Intentions report, while quarterly stocks were within expectations. Separately, both President Trump and the President of Iran have indicated a potential end to the war, which caused the Dow to rally over 1,000 points and crude oil to fall over 2 dollars a barrel which could pressure soybean oil going forward.
• May soybeans gained 11-1/4 cents to 1171 but remained within their recent trading range with resistance at 1178 and support around 1155. November soybeans gained 13-1/2 cents to 1157-1/2, May soybean meal gained $1.50 to $316.40, and May soybean oil gained 0.41 cents to 68.88 cents.
• Today’s Planting Intentions report estimated soybean acres for this year at 84.70 million, which compared to the average trade guess of 85.46 million and last year’s 81.22 million. This was the bullish element of the report as stocks were slightly above expectations. Quarterly stocks were seen at 2.105 billion bushels, which compared to the average guess of 2.077 bb and 1.911 bb a year ago at this time.
• In Brazil, the soybean harvest is now 75% complete as of March 26 as rainfall slowed progress in late regions but drought affects the corn crop in Parana. AgRural has raised its estimate for the 25/26 soybean crop to 178.4 mmt from 178 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat moved higher today, with bull spreading noted in the winter classes. Supportive acreage data from the USDA today helped wheat to rally, as did a drop in the U.S. dollar and a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures. In the May contract, Chicago climbed 9-1/4 cents to 616-1/4, Kansas City was up 9-1/4 at 635-1/2, and MIAX gained 6-1/2 cents to 658-1/2.
• On today’s report, all wheat acreage was pegged at 43.775 ma, which was below expectations and compares to 45.328 ma in 2025. Today’s estimate, if realized, would be the smallest all wheat planted area on historical record (since 1919). Winter wheat acreage, in particular, came in at 32.410 ma, versus 33.153 ma last year.
• Quarterly wheat stocks as of March 1 were estimated at 1.300 bb, which was just slightly below expectations, but up about 5% from last year’s figure of 1.237 bb.
• Expanding drought in the U.S. southern and southwestern Plains is being reflected in HRW crop conditions, as select states issue crop progress data. Conditions in Kansas fell 6% from the previous week to 40% good to excellent. This compares with 49% at this time last year. In Texas, conditions fell 2% on the week to only 14% GTE. This compares with 26% a year ago. The crop in Oklahoma fell 1% to 13% GTE. The USDA will release full crop progress data beginning April 6.
• Romania suffered extreme drought in 2024, but with yields recovering in 2025, they are reported to have harvested a record 12.69 mmt of wheat. This would be up 36.6% from the year prior.
• Cooling temperatures over the next 10-15 days in India should be beneficial for wheat harvest. Meanwhile, China has had ample rain to provide moisture, so the warm and dry forecast in central and southern regions over the next two weeks should be favorable for winter wheat development.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Most Class III contracts held solid gains today, but retreated from their daily highs. April closed up 11 cents at $17.35.
• Spot cheese was 2.25 cents higher to $1.60375/lb with spot whey once again unchanged at $0.69/lb.
• Class IV futures were under pressure today with the April contract giving back 27 cents for a $20.60 settlement.
• Spot butter fell a nickel to finish at $1.7750/lb while powder keeps finding buyers, garnering a penny for a $1.94/lb close.

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Author

Amanda Brill