TFM Daily Market Summary 3-4-2026

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Corn market saw some selling pressure on Wednesday as the crude oil market volatility softened, and additional selling pressure in the wheat market limited gains. May corn futures lost 2/34 cents to 443 ¾, and the July contract lost 2 cents to 453 ½.
  • USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Unknown destinations purchased 125,000 MT (4.9 mb) of corn for the current marketing year. This marks the third announced old-crop corn sale in the past four days.
  • Weekly ethanol production slipped to 322 million barrels last week, down slightly from 325 million barrels the previous week. Approximately 109.05 bushels of corn were used for the week, still head of the pace needed to reach the USDA target for the marketing year.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced during a CNBC interview that the new 15% global tariffs will start this week.
  • Crude oil futures traded mixed Wednesday as headlines surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict quieted. Markets remain focused on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20–30% of global oil exports.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans closed lower on the session as uncertainty continues to surround China’s purchasing activity. May soybeans finished down a penny at 1169-1/2 while July contracts ended a 1/4 cent lower at 1183. Higher crude oil prices provided ongoing support to soybean oil, which managed to post modest gains on the day. However, both soybeans and soybean meal finished lower, as broader demand uncertainty and cautious market sentiment weighed on the complex.
  • China continues to show limited interest in purchasing additional U.S. soybeans, as South American supplies remain available at a significant discount. Recent reports indicate that China has secured more than ten cargoes of April–May shipment soybeans from Brazil. Meanwhile, China is still expected to hold discussions with President Trump, potentially in early April.
  • Soybean harvest in Brazil continues and is reportedly 50% complete. Brazilian crop estimates have been reduced due to dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul and excessively wet weather in northern Mato Grosso in late February, resulting in both quality and yield concerns.
  • Soybean oil continues to draw support from the sharp rally in crude oil, fueled by escalating tensions involving Iran. Crude prices have surged as much as 15%, driven by concerns over potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global crude shipments.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by a weaker close in Paris milling wheat futures and continued lack of competitiveness for U.S. wheat on the global market. In the May contracts, Chicago fell 5-3/4 cents to 568-1/4, Kansas City dropped 5-3/4 cents to 572-1/2, and MIAX declined 4 cents to 609-1/4.
  • Though the second week of the weather forecast for the central Midwest shows below normal temperatures, it is not expected to be cold enough to cause any damage to the winter wheat crop.
  • Tomorrow, Statistics Canada will release their 2026 planting intentions. The average pre-report estimate calls for Canadian wheat acres at 26.4 million, which would be below the 26.9 ma planted last year. However, the estimates range from 26 to 29.2 ma.
  • According to the European Commission, total 25/26 EU grain production was unchanged from their last estimate at 287.4 mmt. This was primarily due to a lower corn crop estimate, because the soft wheat forecast was actually raised from 134.2 to 134.4 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk futures closed overall higher today. April futures gained 21 cents today to close at $17.62.
  • Spot cheese gained 4.1250 cents today to close up at $1.58625/lb. Spot whey gained 0.25 cents to close at $0.630/lb.
  • Class IV futures closed mixed, seeing some pull back in some contracts pressured by the weakness seen in butter.
  • Spot butter lost 11.75 cents to close lower at $2.020/lb. Spot powder lost 0.75 cents to close at $1.6550/lb.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg

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