CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw mixed trade on Wednesday as some buying strength returned to the old crop side of the corn market. A weaker U.S. dollar, potential front-end demand strength, and some relaxation from tariff fears helped support the grain markets.
• The U.S. Dollar Index dropped to its lowest level since November, improving U.S. export competitiveness amid trade tariff concerns.
• Ethanol production hit a record high for this week of the year, averaging 1.093 million barrels per day — up 1.1% from last week and 3.4% year-over-year. Estimated corn usage for ethanol was 110.28 million bushels, staying ahead of USDA targets.
• Weekly export sales, set for release Thursday, will offer insight into demand trends. Recent sales have remained supportive, though high prices near 500 previously softened demand.
• The market will be very headline-focused regarding any changes to the current trade policy. The grain markets found some buying today as the “talk” was that President Trump would lighten his stance on Mexico and Canada tariffs.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in a reversal from yesterday’s trade taking back all of the previous day’s losses. The move comes after President Trump said he would delay the Mexican and Canadian tariffs by another month. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, but soybean meal posted the larger gains.
• Volatility has ruled the markets over the past two weeks after President Trump said the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would go into effect yesterday. Earlier today, he walked this back, saying that he will grant a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers from new tariffs on these imports. Trump reportedly had a “friendly” conversation with Canada’s Trudeau.
• While concerns over Chinese retaliatory tariffs initially pressured the market, their impact on old crop sales is expected to be minimal. Optimism remains for a resolution before new crop sales are affected.
• China has reportedly increased their grain output target as a result of the potential looming trade war. The country aims to produce 700 million tons of grain in 2025, which compares to 650 million tons the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat rebounded today, with the aid of a sharply lower U.S. dollar and easing of tariff-related news. The U.S. commerce secretary issued comments that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be pushed back. In addition, it is being reported that Trump will give a one-month exemption for U.S. automakers for new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
• A major storm system is delivering a mix of rain and snow across the central U.S., providing beneficial moisture for winter wheat as it emerges from dormancy. Warmer March temperatures should further aid crop conditions.
• Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced plans to expand the 2025 crop area to 84 million hectares, 1 million more than last year, with 55.8 million hectares allocated to spring crops. Additionally, 87% of winter crops are rated good or satisfactory, up from 82% in January.
• The European Commission has reported that EU soft wheat exports as of March 2 have reached 13.9 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 37% decline from last year’s 22 mmt shipped in the same timeframe.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures mostly posted losses today, with the April contract dropping 25 cents to close at $17.34.
• Spot cheese continued its decline today, losing 0.75 cents to close at $1.6600/lb. Spot whey also posted losses, dropping 2 cents to close at $0.4900/lb.
• Spot butter was the only market to see gains, rising 3.25 cents to close at $2.2825/lb. Meanwhile, spot powder remained unchanged at $1.1800/lb.
• The Class IV milk futures posted sizable losses today with April down 30 cents to close at $18.34.
• February settlement prices finished at $20.18 for Class III and $19.90 for Class IV.

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Author

John Heinberg