CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Aggressive buying in crude oil and wheat tied to the U.S.–Iran conflict pushed corn futures to their highest levels since November for nearby contracts and since May 2024 for December futures. May corn gained 7 cents to 460-1/2, while December added 6-1/2 cents to 484-1/2. For the week, May futures advanced 12 cents while December futures added 15.
• The U.S.–Iran conflict entered its seventh day, sending crude oil prices sharply higher. April crude briefly surged more than 12% on the session and traded above $90 per barrel. Strength in energy markets helped pull the broader grain complex higher on Friday.
• Hedge funds have been active buyers across agricultural commodities in recent weeks. In corn, funds are expected to have shifted to a small net long position after being net short 13,867 contracts in last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report.
• The March WASDE report will be released Tuesday. Analysts expect U.S. corn carryout to edge slightly higher from February’s 2.127 billion bushels, with modest demand adjustments. The USDA may also increase Brazil’s corn production estimate as favorable weather supports the key second-crop corn.
• Farmer selling of bushels in the U.S. and South America could limit rallies as prices for old crop corn for the May contract have rallied 34 cents off the January report day low.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher, with broad strength across the entire soy complex. Sharply higher energy prices continued to lift soybean oil, which provided additional support to soybean futures. May soybeans closed 22-1/2 cents higher to end the session at 1201-3/4 while July soybeans ended 21-1/2 cents higher at 1214.
• Traders appear optimistic that the meeting between President Trump and China in early April could result in a deal regarding soybeans. However, it seems unlikely that China will purchase additional U.S. soybeans, as U.S. prices remain well above Brazilian offers into the summer months.
• Disappointing rainfall totals in Argentina have provided support to the market. Soybean conditions in the country have stabilized, with 26% of the crop rated poor to very poor. Over the next two weeks, rainfall is expected to favor the northern growing regions, while southern areas are likely to remain dry as they approach the peak pod-fill stage.
• Agroconsult raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast by nearly 1 MMT to 183.1 MMT, compared to the USDA’s forecast of 180 MMT. Harvest in Brazil continues to progress, with only minor shipping bottlenecks reported at this time.
• The Supply and Demand report will be released next Tuesday, and expectations for U.S. ending stocks call for a slight decline to 344 million bushels, down from 350 million in February.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply higher again, driven by speculative buying and soaring energy prices. A gap higher in MATIF wheat and a weaker U.S. dollar also supported U.S. wheat futures. In the May contract, Chicago climbed 33 cents to 616-3/4, Kansas City gained 31 cents to 623-1/2, and MIAX was up 23-1/2 cents at 643.
• According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 2026 global wheat production is expected to decline nearly 3% to 810 mmt because of reduced plantings (due to lower prices). Smaller planted area is expected for the EU, Russia, and the US. China and Ukraine are anticipated to maintain stable production.
• Recent rains across much of the central U.S., with more in the forecast, may ease drought conditions in key wheat areas and could limit further upside in wheat prices.
• The likelihood is increasing of an El Nino weather pattern developing in the June-August timeframe. This could mean a hot and dry summer for the US, particularly in the southern plains. Likewise, this could mean the same for Australia, which raises concerns about their wheat crop.
• On the bearish side, U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive globally, with HRW wheat estimated at roughly an 80-cent-per-bushel premium to Russian offers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures pulled back on the day on some follow through weakness from yesterday. May futures lost 48 cents to close at $17.30.
• Spot cheese improved for a fourth straight day, gaining 0.375 cents to close at $1.59375/lb. Whey tacked on half a cent to go home at $0.64/lb.
• Class IV futures were weaker on the day due to a lower butter price. May futures were down 34 cents to $19.16.
• Spot butter fell 3 cents to close at $2.01/lb. Powder prices improved 2.75 cents to $1.68/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty