CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the week with modest gains as tariff concerns on Mexico and Canada eased. May corn futures finished ¼ cent lower on the week after volatile trading.
• The Trump administration on Thursday delayed tariffs against Mexico AND Canada for all goods covered under USMCA agreement until at least April 2. This action helped limit trade war fears going into the weekend.
• Reflecting the strong demand tone, the US Census Bureau released corn export totals for the month of January. The USA exported 6.16 MMT (243 mb) of corn in January, edging 1990’s highs and setting an all-time record.
• The corn market is monitoring Brazil’s weather forecasts, as some key corn-growing regions are experiencing warm and dry conditions, which could impact second-crop production.
• February rains in Argentina’s key grain-producing regions exceeded recent averages and aligned with long-term precipitation trends, marking a recovery after a dry January. March forecasts indicate a wetter pattern until mid-month.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The soybean market ended mixed, still digesting tariff-related news, particularly President Trump’s delay of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Soybeans and soybean meal closed mixed, while soybean oil posted gains.
• U.S. soybean exports are expected to decline, as a larger portion of Chinese demand is anticipated to shift away from the U.S. Additionally, global buyers are increasingly turning to fresh beans from South America as the harvest season advances.
• Early next week, the USDA’s March Supply and Demand report will take center stage for the markets. There is a high risk that the USDA may lower its soybean export forecast due to China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans. If ending stocks rise more than expected, it could trigger a bearish market reaction, potentially explaining today’s minor weakness. While a new trade deal between the U.S. and China could spark a rally, the ongoing tariff uncertainty remains a negative factor for the market.
• The USDA has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025 soybean production to 169.18 mmt (6.216 billion bushels), up from the previous estimate of 169 mmt. This marks the first upward revision by the USDA for Brazil’s soybean harvest since September 2024, despite several private consultants predicting production figures of around 170 mmt or higher.
• Despite some recent precipitation, Argentina’s soybean crops remain drought-stressed in several of the country’s top growing regions. As a result, the USDA is expected to reduce its outlook for Argentina’s soybean harvest for the second consecutive month.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all classes, following a decline in Paris milling wheat futures and despite a drop in the US Dollar. With little fundamental change, the market remains driven by headlines and uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitics.
• Next Tuesday will feature the monthly WASDE report. The average pre-report estimate is for a slight bump to the US 24/25 wheat carryout, up 2 mb from last month to 796 mb. As for world ending stocks, the average trade guess is relatively steady at 257.5 mmt, which would be down 0.1 mmt from February.
• According to Tass, Russia may impose limits on grain sales, if their 2025 harvest comes in lower than expected. The government said they will initiate “non-tariff” measures if needed. The wheat crop that was planted in the fall faced a dry spell, which could affect the crop when it is harvested this year.
• FranceAgriMer has released data on French wheat conditions. The soft wheat crop was rated 74% good or very good as of March 3, which is up 1% from the week before. They added that February has been more mild normal.
• The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated world grain stocks at 869.3 mmt for the 24/25 season, which is up 2.7 mmt from the prior estimate and compares with 885.8 mmt last season. Additionally, they project global wheat production at 796 mmt, which is up 1% year over year because of higher EU production.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures saw mostly higher trading today aside from the March and April contracts, which were down a penny and unchanged respectively.
• Spot cheese fell 1.50 cents on the day and more than 15 cents on the week to go home at $1.62625/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.49/lb.
• Class IV futures were slightly weaker to end the week. June futures saw the biggest loss of 11 cents to close at $17.82.
• Spot butter ended a penny higher at $2.31/lb but still remains 3.50 cents lower over the week. Powder lost 1.25 cents for a second straight day to close at $1.1550/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty