CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite strength in wheat and crude oil markets, corn futures came under pressure as a weak technical outlook, fund long liquidation, and spillover selling from soybeans pulled prices off session highs to finish slightly lower. May corn futures lost ¾ cent to 440 ¼, and July slipped ¼ cent to 451.
• Managed money has begun liquidating long positions as the heavy supply, competition from South American bushels on the export market, and higher than expected acre projection have pressured corn futures. On last week’s Commitment of Traders report, managed funds held a net long position of 248,000 Net long contract as of April 7. This was down 49,000 contacts from the previous week.
• The USDA announced weekly export inspection of 1.783 MMT for the week ending April 9. This total was within the expected range of estimates. Total inspections are still running 34% above last year.
• Estimates for the upcoming CONAB report see Brazilian corn production for the 25/26 marketing year at 139.9 mmt, which would be up 1.6 mmt from the previous estimate in March. This would primarily be due to an increase in yield while acreage remained unchanged.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower after trading in a wide range and gave up all of the gains from earlier in the day. May soybeans led the way lower, losing 13-1/2 cents to $11.62-1/4 while November lost 8 cents to $11.49-3/4. May soybean meal gained $0.10 to $331.90 while May soybean oil lost 0.59 cents to 66.50 cents despite gains in crude oil over $2 a barrel.
• Over the weekend, peace talks between the U.S. and Iran fell apart, and as a result, President Trump announced that the U.S. would blockade all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. While this move could increase crude oil prices, which may support soybean oil, it could also anger China who Trump is supposed to meet with next month regarding a trade deal. There is speculation that this meeting may be cancelled due to the blockade.
• Funds may be unwinding spreads in soybean meal and bean oil in which they were long the bean oil and short the meal. In addition, a substantial amount of value in soybeans likely comes from the value in bean oil. The funds hold a record-long position in soybean oil, which they may be beginning to take profit on.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans as of April 7. They sold 23,777 contracts, reducing their net long position to 189,630 contracts. They bought 14,873 contracts of bean oil, leaving them long 150,682 contracts and sold 6,393 contracts of meal, leaving them long 93,540 contracts.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite posting double-digit gains at the close, wheat futures finished well off their session highs as prices followed crude oil lower after fading from earlier strength, even with the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Additional support came from weather concerns, as weekend rains missed key U.S. wheat-growing areas, leaving the southwestern Plains too dry. In the May contracts, Chicago wheat gained 11-1/4 cents to $5.82-1/4, Kansas City climbed 12-1/2 cents to $6.03-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat was up 13 cents at $6.24-1/
• Weekly wheat export inspections amounted to 11.8 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 773 mb, up 15% from last year. Inspections continue to run above the USDA’s estimated pace; exports in 25/26 are forecasted at 900 mb, up 9% from the year prior.
• Friday afternoon’s Commitments of Traders report indicated that managed funds sold over 14,000 contracts of Chicago wheat in the week ended Tuesday, April 7. This flipped them back to the net short side of that market, at around 5,600 contracts.
• APK Inform has reduced their Ukrainian 2026 wheat production forecast to 19.9 mmt. They also lowered their export estimate by 1.5 mmt to 13 mmt.
• The Russian agriculture ministry is reported to have cut their wheat export tax by 41% to 329 Rubles/mt. In related news, Russia has approved an addition of 5 mmt of grain (including wheat) to their previous export quota of 20 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A second consecutive green day for spot cheese kept Class III futures mostly green Monday, but the traded volume was really lacking.
• Spot powder was the headline again, with additional bidding over 1.75c to take it up to a new all-time high of $2.1325/lb.
• Spot whey tacked on a half cent to $0.71/lb, closing at its highest price since February 19th.
• News and events this week will be lacking for the dairy markets. The next GDT auction is next week, while milk production and cold storage will be out April 22nd and 24th, respectively.
• There was some selling pressure in Class IV, despite powder making a new all-time high.

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Author

John Heinberg