CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures softened to start the week despite firm underlying demand. Pressure stemmed from weakness in the wheat market and long liquidation, which weighed on corn prices.
• Front-month contracts bore the brunt as profit-taking narrowed the old crop/new crop spread. Increased grain movement, with producers marketing bushels ahead of the planting window, also added pressure.
• USDA announced a flash sale of corn on Monday morning. Japan stepped into the U.S. corn export market and purchased 120,000 MT (4.7 mb) for the current marketing year.
• Weekly corn export inspections were very strong in the USDA export inspections report. For the week ending April 10, U.S. Exporters shipped 1.829 MMT of corn. This total was above market expectations. Total corn shipments are running 30% above last year’s pace and still ahead of the USDA-raised export target for the marketing year.
• Brazil’s second corn crop outlook continues to improve, supported by favorable weather and increased precipitation potential. CONAB recently raised production estimates, and trends remain positive as the growing season advances.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day with a lower close in the front months but higher new crop prices in bear spreading action. Traders continue to expect a smaller acreage number this season supporting the back months. It was interesting that soybeans were only down slightly when soybean meal lost $2.50 and soybean oil lost 1.03 cents in the May contracts.
• Today’s export inspections report was middle of the road for soybeans with 20.1 million bushels inspected for the week ending April 10 and was between the average trade estimates. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.547 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year.
• March NOPA crush is projected at 197.6 million bushels, which would mark a record for the month of March. This follows a five-month low in February but still falls short of December’s 205 million bushels.
• Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 20,600 contracts of soybeans increasing their net short position to 50,447 contracts. They bought 35,887 contracts of bean oil and 3,103 contracts of meal. Funds are estimated to have bought back 26,000 contracts of beans over the past three days.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, led by double-digit losses in Kansas City contracts. The downturn was largely driven by forecasts for beneficial rains in the U.S. Southern and Southwestern Plains. Additional pressure came from profit-taking after Friday’s rally and futures encountering technical resistance.
• Weekly wheat inspections were pegged at 22.2 mb, bringing total 24/25 inspections to 672 mb, which is up 14% from last year. On last week’s WASDE report, the USDA dropped their estimate of 24/25 wheat exports from 835 mb to 820 mb, which would still be up 16% from the year prior.
• Russian wheat export values declined by $1 last week, to $250/MT FOB, according to IKAR. SovEcon reported weekly Russian wheat exports at 450,000 MT—up 30,000 MT from the previous week—but expects total April shipments to reach only 1.9 MMT, significantly below the 5 MMT exported in April 2024.
• Analyst APK-Inform has estimated that the Ukrainian 2025 grain harvest may increase by 8% to 57.5 mmt, largely due to a bigger corn crop. They also estimated Ukraine will harvest 21.5 mmt of wheat, which would be down from the 22 mmt crop in 2024. Finally, APK-Inform projected Ukraine’s 25/26 total grain exports would increase by 11% to 42.6 mmt.
• The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report indicated that as of the week ending April 8, money managers bought almost 10,000 contracts of Chicago wheat – this is nearly a 9% reduction in their net short position, which now sits at just over 102,000 contracts. During the same period, they increased their net short in Kansas City wheat by more than 4,000 contracts (or just over 9%) to nearly 50,000 contracts.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures posted double digit gains in May through August contracts today. The May contract led the way, closing 37 cents higher to close at $17.64.
• Spot cheese posted its seventh day in a row of higher trading, now back above the $1.80/lb level for the first time since February. Whey was unchanged at $0.4650/lb.
• Class IV futures were also improved on the day despite a lackluster spot session for its products. August futures gained 17 cents to close at $18.32.
• Both spot butter and powder were unchanged on the day at $2.3475/lb and $1.1675/lb respectively.

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Author

John Heinberg