The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, April 3, in Observance of Good Friday

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the session mixed, despite a rally in crude oil, as large supplies and higher-than-expected acreage projections capped upside momentum. May corn closed 2 cents lower to 452 ¼, and July corn slipped 1 ¾ cents lower to 463 ¼. With markets closed on Friday, May corn futures finished the week down 10 ¼ cents for a third consecutive lower weekly close.
• USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending March 26, new corn export sales totaled 1.149 MMT (48.2 mb). Total corn export sales remain strong, up 29% over last year. U.S. corn will likely remain competitive on the export market until July when the Brazil corn crop starts competing on the export market.
• Current outlook for the corn market has seen headwinds develop. Planting of larger than expected acres is about to begin, and recent rainfall has improved soil moisture in many regions. The latest drought monitor map still shows concerns as 44% of U.S. corn ground is still affected by some form of drought, up 5% from last year.
• Corn market may be seeing rotation by managed funds as they may start to liquidate their large net long positions. Three consecutive lower weekly closes indicate the corn market may have lost its upward momentum.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures faced pressure on the day, weighed by weaker-than-expected export sales and a stronger U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index trading near six-month highs. Despite strength in energy markets, soybeans were unable to follow, with losses led by nearby contracts. May soybeans closed 5 cents lower at $11.63-1/2, while November futures finished 1-1/2 cents lower at $11.54.
• Soybean futures saw a two-sided trade, finding support from a sharp rally in energy markets while facing pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. The move followed President Trump’s remarks signaling continued U.S. attacks on Iran, which dampened hopes for a near-term resolution and pushed crude oil prices toward $110 per barrel on supply concerns. At the same time, strength in the U.S. Dollar Index weighed on grains and soybeans, as a firmer dollar reduces export competitiveness and makes U.S. commodities more expensive for global buyers.
• U.S. soybean export sales came in below expectations this week. For the week ending March 26, USDA reported 353,300 metric tons in sales for the 2025/26 marketing year, falling short of analyst estimates ranging from 400,000 to 700,000 metric tons.
• Rising fertilizer prices tied to disruptions in the Middle East are pressuring farmers globally, including both the U.S. and Brazil. In Brazil, urea prices have jumped 30–35%, with producers having secured only about 6% of their nitrogen needs for 2026/27.
• Higher input costs could shift acreage decisions, with elevated nitrogen prices weighing more heavily on corn production in both regions, while soybean growers may cut fertilizer usage and rely more on existing soil fertility to manage costs.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat managed to close marginally higher despite pressure from lower corn and soybean futures, a firmer U.S. dollar, and a lack of fresh news. Notably, the grain complex drew little support from crude oil, even as the front-month May contract surged more than $10 per barrel following President Trump’s speech, which raised concerns about potential additional attacks against Iran. In the May contract, Chicago was up 3/4 cent at 598-1/4, Kansas City gained 2 cents to 615-3/4, and MIAX climbed 4-3/4 cents to 646-3/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 0.9 mb in wheat export sales for 25/26, and an increase of 10.0 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls under the 17.3 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s 900 mb export goal. Total wheat export commitments for 25/26 have reached 886 mb, up 14% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of March 31, an estimated 65% of winter wheat acres are experiencing some form of drought conditions. This represents an 8% jump over the week before and is also a 52-week high. Spring wheat area in drought, on the other hand, remained steady at 21% for the fourth consecutive week. With rains tracking across much of the central U.S., it is possible that traders will see a reduction in wheat drought readings on next week’s update.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures have continued their push higher. The roll to May on the second month brings that continuous chart to an 8-month high.
• Spot cheese capped off a shortened week with 1.75 cents of gains, totaling 5.8750 cents on the week. Spot whey did not do much this week, losing a quarter cent.
• Class IV has been weaker recently and that continued for most contracts today. Second month May was 12 cents higher, however.
• Spot butter essentially cut its losses for the week in half today, gaining 3.75 cents to bring the weekly loss to 3.50 cents. Spot powder hit a new high at $1.9725/lb.
• US dairy exports in February totaled 239,541 metric tons, up 14% YoY. Cheese hit a new all-time high at 58,405 metric tons. Butter was impressive again at 15,311 metric tons.
• Cheese production in February was 1.16 billion lbs, up 3.9% YoY. Butter production came in at 221 million lbs, up 9.1% from a year ago.

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Author

John Heinberg