CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Corn futures finished softer on the session, weighed by selling pressure spilling over from the wheat market, and the prospects of a strong planting pace for the next corn crop. U.S. corn demand remains strong, but the market is looking for bullish news to push prices higher.
- Weekly corn export inspections remain strong. For the week ending April 24, corn inspections totaled 1.655 MMT (65.1 mb), which was near the top end of expectations. Total corn expectations are up 29% year-over-year, and ahead of the pace needed to reach the USDA export target for the marketing year.
- Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to show corn planting nearing 25% complete, up from 12% last week and ahead of the five-year average, reinforcing ideas that planted acres could exceed earlier projections.
- The influence of First Notice Day of the May futures likely limited corn prices and added volatility, as traders holding long May positions need to exit or roll those positions to the next contract month or risk delivery.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans were mixed to end the day with the front months higher and back months lower in bull spreading action. May futures were up 2-1/4 cents while November was down 1/4 cent. Support came from soybean oil, which closed higher, while soybean meal was lower to end the day.
- USDA’s Crop Progress report, due this afternoon, is expected to show soybean planting at 17% complete as of Sunday. Warmer, drier weather in early May should help with emergence for early-planted fields.
- Today’s export inspections were on the poorer side for soybeans at the low range of analyst estimates. Inspections totaled 16.1 million bushels for the week ending April 24. Total inspections for 24/25 are now at 1.584 billion bushels, which is up 11% from the previous year.
- Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 4,898 contracts, increasing their net long position to 31,067 contracts. They were buyers of 9,940 contracts of bean oil and sellers of 3,911 contracts of meal.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat markets struggled to recover from a rocky start to the week, ultimately closing lower across all classes on Monday. The downturn was driven by forecasts of continued heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, which added pressure to prices. Both Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts hit new lows today.
- The USDA released its weekly Export Inspections report this morning for the week ending April 24. Wheat export inspections totaled 24 million bushels, coming in above expectations and reaching a seven-month high. Year-to-date inspections stand at 715 million bushels, up 15% from the same time last year, just below the USDA’s projected 16% increase.
- There were reports of frost across parts of Russia last night, though it remains unclear whether any damage occurred to the wheat crop.
- The two-week weather outlook for parts of the U.S. calls for continued heavy rainfall across the Southern Plains, including Texas and Oklahoma. Traders may begin to shift their perspective, viewing the persistent rains not as beneficial, but as a potential setback for the developing wheat crop.
- The weekly Crop Progress report is due out later this afternoon. Wheat conditions are expected to be steady to slightly improved, with spring wheat planting and emergence running just ahead of the five-year average. Estimates suggest planting reached 32% as of Sunday, compared to 31% at this time last year and a five-year average of 21%.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- The milk trade began the week with another lackluster session after last week’s strong early rally fizzled out.
- The cheese market remains under duress, finishing Monday unchanged at $1.7025/lb. A couple weeks ago, cheese was sitting up at $1.85/lb on 8 up days in a row. The buyers have really slowed down purchases.
- The dairy spot trade was extremely quiet, likely leading to a light day of trade in milk futures. Cheese, powder, and whey all held unchanged on no loads traded.
- Spot butter fell 0.50c to $2.2750/lb on 7 loads traded.
- News for dairy this week should be quiet. Tomorrow is the last trading day for April 2025 dairy futures.
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