CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The influence of First Notice Day for the May contract and selling in the SRW wheat market limited gains in the corn market, as it remains rangebound with choppy trade.
• The USDA will release the latest round of crop progress numbers this afternoon, with expectations for corn planting to be 27% complete, up 15% from last week. This will keep the planting pace head of the 5-year average. Expectations are for a large jump in planting progress to have occurred in western and southern areas.
• Planting pace is expected to slow over the next couple weeks. Weather models are forecasting rounds of precipitation to push through the corn belt, which could limit planting until the middle of May.
• This morning, the USDA released weekly export inspections. Last week US exporters inspected 48.3 mb (1.226 mmt) of corn for export, below the previous week’s total. Cumulative export inspections now total 1.245 billion bushels, which is 32% ahead of last year’s pace.
• On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed funds reduced their net short position in the corn market to 238,546 net short corn contracts as of April 23, a reduction of 41,024 from the previous week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher thanks to an impressive showing from soybean meal which saw the July futures up $9.60 which was a gain of 2.79%. July soybean futures once again rallied up to their 40-day moving average but failed and drifted lower into the day. Soybean oil was sharply lower.
• A bearish factor for soybean oil and other veg oils has been a surge in imports of used cooking oil for the use of biofuel production in the US. Bringing in this cheap imported oil has reduced profits for soybean processors which has caused crushing to slow and may cause a change in plans to expand processing plants. There has been a lot of optimism that the increased use of biodiesels would support the soy complex, but this development may exert an adverse effect.
• For the week ending Thursday, April 18, the USDA reported that soybean inspections totaled 9.2 mb. This was within the range of trade expectations but below last week’s, which were 16.3 mb. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 1.424 billion bushels, which is down 18% from the previous year.
• The US share of Chinese imports has significantly fallen as both Argentina and Brazil continue to put out larger crops each year lessening the need for US purchases. Chinese imports from the US are expected to fall by 24% with Argentina picking up that business.
• In Argentina, the world’s largest soybean meal exporter, a strike was called by the oilseed workers’ union at the country’s largest agricultural export port to begin today. The strike is to protest against the government’s labor reforms and new taxes. It is said that the strike would also affect 80% of the companies that use the port.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mixed, with pressure on Chicago and KC futures, but gains in Minneapolis. Weakness for the SRW wheat stemmed from recent rains in the US Midwest, as well as the potential for some of the drier areas of southern Russia to receive limited moisture this week. A lower close in Matif wheat also weighed on the US market.
• Weekly wheat export inspections of 17.7 mb bring the 23/24 total to 622 mb. Inspections are slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal.
• Australia was mostly dry over the weekend, but eastern areas may see storms later this week and into the weekend. While their wheat planting continues to move forward, more moisture is needed, so this system will be beneficial if rain does develop.
• Russia’s state weather forecaster indicates the potential continuation of drought conditions in some of their vital wheat-growing regions until mid-May. While conditions are projected to be relatively average for most of the European part of Russia, concerns arise for the eastern part of the Southern Federal District, where a lack of moisture may impact winter crops.
• The New Zealand National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research has said they expect El Nino to ease by June, with La Nina expected to form between July and September. Some forecasters have already said that El Nino is fading, but most are in agreement that La Nina weather conditions will develop in mid to late summer in the northern hemisphere.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed with small gains in the May, June, and July contracts. The second month chart is still near the highest it has been since last fall.
• Spot cheese was unchanged on no loads traded today. One could argue it is a good sign at least that prices have been able to stabilize after the recent rally.
• Class IV futures were devoid of any movement or trades today. The second month chart sits at $20.10.
• This came on a day when spot butter fell a half cent on no loads traded while powder was unchanged at an unimpressive $1.11/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg