CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw some price recovery on Wednesday as the friendly demand tone helped pull prices off early session lows. Old crop contracts led the rebound, supported by solid export and ethanol demand.
• USDA reported a second consecutive flash export sale of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024–25, highlighting robust export interest.
• Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.040 million barrels per day, translating to 100.9 million bushels of corn use—slightly above the pace needed to meet USDA targets.
• New corn crop prices were limited by weather forecasts as conditions for the early part of May are favorable for planting pace. The warmer and overall drier forecast should help producers maintain a strong start to the planting of the 2025-26 corn crop.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day on continued pressure from a fast planting pace and favorable weather conditions over the next few weeks. Prices have been relatively supported as trade still looks at smaller soybean acres, which could cause a decline in the carryout, especially if China begins buying again.
• Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower with soybean oil posting the majority of losses, as crude oil futures slumped by over 2 dollars a barrel. Malaysian palm oil futures were also lower and have posted 4 consecutively lower closes.
• Argentina soybean harvest may be yielding better than expected. Dr. Cordonnier, crop analyst, has raised his projection for the Argentina soybean crop to 50 MMT, up 1 MMT from his last projection. This is slightly above USDA projections at 49 MMT.
• Brazilian soybeans continue to undercut U.S. prices. FOB Brazilian beans are 30–50 cents cheaper than U.S. Gulf offerings for May–July, which could further limit U.S. export competitiveness as China maintains its preference for Brazilian supply.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures finished mixed on Tuesday, with Chicago and Minneapolis posting modest gains while Kansas City slipped slightly. End-of-month short covering helped lift the market, though KC remains weighed down by improving weather prospects in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. All three classes are technically oversold, and Chicago stochastics are nearing a buy crossover.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s 25/26 wheat crop is expected to reach 20.5 mmt. If realized, this would be the second highest total on record. The next week or so is expected to be net dry for Argentina, which should aid with corn and soybean harvest, as well as wheat planting (which typically begins in May).
• Australia’s wheat output is forecast by the USDA FAS at 31 MMT for 2025/26, a decline of 3.1 MMT year-over-year due to lower acreage and yields. Exports are projected at 23 MMT, down from 26 MMT.
• The European Commission reports that EU soft wheat exports have reached 17.5 mmt as of April 27; the season began on July 1. This is down 34% year over year, with 26.6 mmt shipped during the same period a year ago.
• Northern China’s wheat belt remains under stress, with little rainfall expected in the next 10 days. China’s Water Resources Minister has reportedly issued directives to bolster drought relief efforts.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures had an optimistic day, posting gains across most contracts. June led the way, rising 13 cents to close at $17.37.
• Spot cheese continued its upward trend, adding 0.3750 cents to close at $1.7150/lb, while dry whey slipped 0.75 cents to settle at $0.4975/lb.
• Spot butter rebounded from yesterday’s decline, climbing 5.50 cents to close at $2.2950/lb. Meanwhile, spot powder slipped 1.25 cents, closing at $1.1750/lb.
• Class IV milk futures had a quiet day, with no contracts being traded for the 2025 year.
• April settlement prices for Class III was $17.48 and Class IV $17.92.

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Author

John Heinberg