CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite aggressive selling to close the week, the corn market remained resilient, pushing back against early-session selling pressure as concerns over the potential trade war and tariff impacts weighed on the markets. Corn futures ended the week mixed, with buying strength concentrated in the front end of the market. For the week, May corn futures closed higher, gaining 7 cents.
• China announced a counter tariff to the recently announced U.S. tariffs on Wednesday. China will impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. good imported into China. The prospects of the growing trade war sent selling pressure across the market, and limited gains in corn.
• The corn market stayed supported by the prospects of a tightening U.S. and global corn supply picture. Currently, U.S. export demand and ethanol usage is running ahead of USDA targets for the marketing year. Market analysts are looking to next week’s USDA WASDE report for an increase in corn demand on the balance sheet which could move corn carryout down from its current 540 billion bushel level for the 2024-25 marketing year.
• Traders are closely monitoring a powerful spring storm moving through the U.S. Corn Belt. Heavy rainfall is forecast for key growing regions in the southern Corn Belt, where saturated soils could raise concerns about potential planting delays.
• As we head into next week, traders will be closely monitoring headlines regarding the ongoing tariff situation and negotiations with other countries. The tariff package announced by President Trump on Wednesday is set to take effect on April 9, leaving a window for potential changes to the plan as tariff negotiations continue.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower for the second consecutive day after China announced overnight that they would place retaliatory tariffs of 34% on all U.S. imports. Since President Trump announced the tariffs, May soybeans have lost over 50 cents and have been the hardest hit out of the grains. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• In South America, harvest conditions remain cooperative overall, but there have been some excess rains in Argentina have delayed the start of harvest as fields are too wet for tractors. Soybean production is still forecast at 49.0 mmt with yields in the central region better than expected.
• Yesterday, OPEC announced they would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day next month, equivalent to three monthly increments. They cited healthy fundamentals and a positive market outlook. This caused crude oil futures to drop by over $5 per barrel again today, which in turn led to a decline in soybean oil prices as well. Crude has lost nearly 10 dollars a barrel over the past two days.
• For the week, May soybeans lost 46 cents while November soybeans lost 44-3/4 cents. May soybean meal lost $10.40 to $283.10, and May soybean oil managed to gain 0.68 cents to 45.84 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board as tariff headlines remained the main focus for traders, driving sell-offs in both equity and commodity markets. Additionally, a sharp rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index today contributed to a weaker outlook for the wheat complex.
• Some regions of western Kansas saw rains over the past 24 hours, which will offer some relief from drought conditions. However, more will be needed in the long run. The forecast into next week shows warmer and drier conditions for the Southern Plains.
• According to the USDA as of April 1, about 37% of U.S. winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, up from just 14% the week before. Additionally, drought in spring wheat areas also jumped during the same time period, from 21% to 39%.
• The U.S. ag attaché for China is anticipating higher corn, rice, and wheat production in the 25/26 season. The wheat planted area is expected to remain stable but also show improved yields, leading to a bigger harvest. In related news, China has issued retaliatory tariffs on U.S. ag goods, including 15% on wheat.
• Since their season began on July 1 Ukrainian total grain exports have reached 33 mmt, which is down 8.4% year over year. Wheat exports specifically have totaled 13.2 mmt, down close to 7% versus the same timeframe last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures fell for a second straight day to close out the week. October futures led the way lower, losing 15 cents to close at $18.15.
• Spot cheese improved half a cent to close out the week at $1.65/lb. Whey prices lost 0.25 cents to close at $0.49/lb.
• Class IV milk prices suffered double digit losses for all but the April contract which was unchanged at $18.31. July futures saw the largest loss of 40 cents to close at $17.86.
• Spot butter fell for a third straight day, losing 3.50 cents to close at $2.2950/lb. Powder lost a penny to go home at $1.1575/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg