CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure across the grain complex weighed on corn futures during the session. The weak price action leaves the corn market vulnerable to further downside pressure and liquidation as the May contract is looking to test the low for the month of April at 424 ½ from April 2.
• Seasonality may be working against the corn market with potential price weakness into the end of the month. Producers who hold May basis contracts will need to decide to price or roll these positions before the month’s end. This market structure can lead to selling pressure.
• The USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon showed corn planting in its beginning stages nationally at 3% complete. This was even with last year, and 1% ahead of the 5-year average.
• Weather forecast for temperatures into the end of April are predicted to stay above normal, which could allow for planting progress to pick up speed for this year’s US corn crop.
• The USDA will release the April WASDE report on Thursday, April 11.  Expectations are for corn ending stocks to be reduced to 2.102 billion bushels, down 70 mb from last month. This should reflect the strong first quarter corn usage as reflected in last month’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower with the May contract closing below the 40-day moving average. Pressure came from lower soybean oil along with lower soybean meal. Prices got a boost earlier this morning after a flash sale was announced but faded into the end of the day.
• This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 124,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year. This was the second flash sale announced within two weeks after a long period of no activity. Premiums in Brazil are reportedly rising which could make US soybeans more competitive.
• In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is pressing on and is reportedly 79% complete which is slightly below last year’s pace. Some of the beans were planted a bit late and recent rains may have delayed the progress. In Argentina, the growing season is winding down and harvest should begin soon.
• On Thursday, the USDA will release its Supply and Demand report at 11am central time. Early estimates for soybeans are for US ending stocks to increase slightly by 4 mb to 319 mb, and for world ending stocks to decrease slightly. In South America, Argentine soybean production is expected to increase by 0.4 mmt to 50.4 mmt. In Brazil, the USDA is expected to lower their production by 2.7 mmt to 152.3 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat faded into the end of the session, with a lower close across the board, except for a penny gain in May spring wheat. The pressure stemmed from a decline in Matif futures, alongside lower US corn and soybean prices. Moreover, the US Dollar is positioned near the middle of the recent range ahead of tomorrow’s release of key inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to have risen by 0.3% in March and 3.5% year-over-year. Any deviation from these projections could prompt a market reaction.
• According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop condition remained steady at 56% rated good to excellent, marking the best condition seen for this time of year since 2020. Additionally, 6% of the crop is currently headed, slightly lower than the 7% reported last year but above the average of 5%. Furthermore, US spring wheat planting progress is at 3%, aligning with the average and surpassing last year’s 1%.
• Argentina’s Economy Minister has announced plans to lower tariffs on certain herbicide imports starting in April, just one month before the start of wheat planting for the 24/25 season. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a wheat harvest of 15.1 million metric tons last year.
• India’s wheat production for the 23/24 season is forecasted to rise to 105.8 million metric tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous year’s 102.9 million metric tons, as reported by the Roller Flour Miller’s Federation. This increase is attributed to expanded planted acreage, estimated at 34 million hectares compared to last year’s 33.6 million hectares, and improved yields. Additionally, the Indian government is expected to boost wheat buying for reserves to 31-32 million metric tons, up from 26.2 million metric tons last year, according to Agriwatch.
• The USDA projects Russian wheat production at 91.5 million metric tons, while Argus has raised their estimate to 92.1 million metric tons from 90 million previously. Despite the recent rise in Russian wheat FOB values to $210 per metric ton, as reported by IKAR, Russian wheat continues to be the world’s most competitively priced offer, keeping pressure on US futures.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV futures were unchanged to higher with the second month May contract closing up 9 cents at $20.33 on no volume. The 2024 calendar year average sits at $20.67.
• Spot butter was unchanged on no loads traded while spot powder gave up a quarter cent. Butter traders seemed to fade completely after the recent rally.
• Class III action was lower with all contracts down 5 to 24 cents, bringing the 2024 calendar year average to $17.13.
• Spot trade was mixed for Class III with cheese up 0.75 cents on 13 loads traded while spot whey fell 1.25 cents, continuing to break under $0.40/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill