TFM Daily Market Summary 5-01-2024


  • Corn futures worked off session lows during the day to finish moderately higher. More importantly, the firm price action posted a price reversal on the charts, which could signal some follow-through strength into tomorrow’s session.
  • Despite being off to a strong start, the corn planting pace is expected to slow over the next couple weeks. Weather models are forecasting rounds of precipitation to push through the Corn Belt, which could limit planting until the middle of May.
  • With producers busy in the fields, the cash market has improved, trying to pull bushels. In many areas, cash basis levels have improved. With the recent wetness, it will be more likely that we will see more corn movement into the cash market.
  • The USDA will release the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 650,000 – 1.3 mmt for the old crop and up to 300,000 mt for the new crop. US corn has remained competitive in the export market.
  • Ethanol production averaged 987,000 barrels/day last week, up 3.5% from the previous week and 1.1% over last year. Ethanol stocks are trending 9.1% below last year’s levels. Corn used for ethanol production last week totaled 97.97 million bushels, which was below the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.


  • Soybeans rebounded today from lower trade this morning and ended with a higher close which was led by gains in soybean oil. There may have been some support in soybean futures due to reports of planting delays caused by excessive rains that may be an issue for two more weeks. Soybean meal finished the day lower as Argentina harvests their soy crop and prepares to start exporting meal.
  • In Argentina, there had been an ongoing strike by dock workers and others who are unhappy with newly elected president Milei about proposed labor reforms and income taxes. The strike had shut down a major port, but the strike was lifted which could have been the reason why futures were so much lower this morning before rebounding.
  • Later today, the Census Crush numbers will be released for March, and they are expected to show total crush at 205 million bushels which would compare to 193.9 mb the previous month. Soybean oil stocks are expected to increase to 2.350 billion pounds from 2.146 billion in February.
  • In South America, the Brazilian soybean harvest is estimated at 90% complete. Similar to Argentina, the southern region of Brazil is receiving too much rain and holding up harvest progress. Both southern Brazil and Argentina are expected to continue receiving rains throughout the week.


  • Wheat closed lower again today, with KC futures under the most pressure. Paris milling wheat futures did not provide any direction today, as the Matif market was closed for the May Day holiday on Wednesday. The US Dollar has also lacked direction after trading on both sides of unchanged; traders may have been positioning themselves ahead of the Fed comments this afternoon regarding interest rates.
  • There continues to be some rain in the forecast for drier areas of Russia, which may in part be weighing on US futures. Russian and Ukrainian FOB export values also continue to add pressure as they are the world’s cheapest offers. Ukraine is said to have exported 1.9 mmt of wheat in April despite the damage to infrastructure and logistic challenges.
  • According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, Australia’s wheat production is expected at 25.8 mmt for the 24/25 season. That would be about 3% below the 10-year average, and exports are anticipated to drop by 2.5 mmt to 17.5 mmt as well.
  • From a technical perspective, July Chicago wheat held support today at the 100-day moving average, which is around 595 ½. A similar story can be said for July KC wheat, which rebounded just above the 10-day moving average at 621.


  • Spot cheese jumped another penny on the day to get to $1.81125/lb on what continues to be an impressive push higher. Whey went unchanged at $0.3750/lb.
  • Class III futures dipped slightly on May Day but still hold strong. The 2024 April-December Class III average saw a drop of about 3 cents to close at $18.33/cwt.
  • Spot butter pushed higher by 4 cents to trade at $3.0050/lb. This was butters best close since November 6. Powder gained half a cent at $1.1250/lb.
  • Class IV futures for all remaining 2024 contracts were in the green today. October futures led the way trading 20 cents higher while June futures traded 14 cents higher.

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Brandon Doherty

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