CORN HIGHLIGHTS: 

• The corn market saw good money flow into the front end of the market, erasing most of yesterday’s losses in the July contract. This was triggered by a reflection of tight current corn supplies and rolling on long May positions with May expiration on Friday.
• Deferred futures had limited gains as the strong planting pace and the prospects of growing new crop supplies keeps the market cautious. December corn touched a new near-term low of 512-¼ before turning higher into the close.
• The favorable price action in the corn futures market posted hook or price reversals, which improved the technical picture and could lead to additional buying support on Thursday.
• The corn market and grain markets in general will be looking towards Friday’s USDA WASDE report for near-term direction and the market’s first look at 2023-24 marketing year supply/demand numbers. Expectations are for a slight increase in old crop carryout, and new crop projected carryout to push 2.0 billion bushels for this fall. The report will be released on Friday, May 12 at 2:00 CST.
• The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report will be released on Thursday morning. Corn export demand continues to struggle, and the market will be looking for improvement off last week’s disappointing sales recording net cancellations of 315,600 MT for old crop corn.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower again today, primarily led lower by the front months and soybean oil. Soybean meal managed to close only slightly higher.
• Despite friendly CPI data that showed inflation slowing, crude oil prices remained lower, which pressured the soy complex. The Dollar fell after the news, making soybeans slightly more competitive to Brazilian offers.
• Friday’s WASDE report will likely hold both bullish and bearish numbers for soybeans. Argentina’s production is expected to fall to 24 mmt or lower, while estimates for Brazil are higher at 155 mmt.
• With weather much improved, planting progress should be expected to continue at a good pace, and this has weighed on new crop prices as a large crop may be in the future.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The northeastern two thirds of Kansas saw good rainfall, which may have added resistance to prices, although it may be too little too late.
• The Kansas winter wheat crop is rated 68% poor to very poor as of May 7. This is the lowest rating for that date since 1989.
• Meetings began today between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN to discuss the Black Sea grain deal and a possible resolution beyond the current May 18 end date.
• For Friday’s WASDE report, the trade is looking for 1,782 mb in 23/24 all wheat production versus 1,650 in April.
• The average US wheat carryout estimate for 22/23 is 603 mb versus 598 last month, and for 23/24 the average guess is 602 mb.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A total of 15 loads traded in the spot cheese market on Wednesday as buyers aggressively bid up blocks 5.75c and barrels 2c in the session.
• The recovery in cheese brought about optimism in the Class III trade and the market quickly bid June milk up 31c to $17.19.
• The Class IV market was quiet with an unchanged spot session for both butter and powder.
• The US whey market continues to struggle. The spot price fell another penny Wednesday back to $0.3025/lb.
• Class III milk volume has been light lately, but did see an uptick in contracts traded Wednesday. A total of 966 contracts traded hands for the 2023 milk months.

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Author

John Heinberg