CORN HIGHLIGHTS: 

• Corn market saw risk off trade on Thursday as the market prepares for Friday’s USDA WASDE report. Prices were in consolidation, trading within Wednesday’s large price range, but closed near the low end of that range.
• Friday’s WASDE report will show the first projections for the 2023-24 marketing year with an expected carryout projection of just over 2.000 billion bushels. A softer demand tone is expected to cause old crop carryout to rise to 1.366 billion bushels, up slightly from last month.
• Weekly export sales were disappointing at 10.13 mb for 22/23 and 3.27 mb for 23/24. U.S. exports continue to struggle against the cheaper Brazilian corn. Exports sales for 22/23 need to average 17.4 mb per week to meet the USDA’s current estimate.
• Overall, weather forecasts appear mostly favorable for planting pace while still providing adequate moisture to allow this year’s crop to have a strong start.
• CONAB raised their expected Brazilian corn crop projections for the 22/23 marketing year to 125.54 MMT, up slightly from last month, but over 12 MMT higher than last year’s total production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in the front months but posted a slight loss for the Nov contract. Soybean meal rallied at the close while soybean oil was dragged lower by crude oil.
• Export sales were very poor at just 2.3 mb for 22/23, down 70% from the previous week and 68% from the prior 4-week average. Shipments were 15.1 mb, just above the 12.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s current marketing year estimate.
• Weekly soybean meal export sales for 22/23 came in near the top end of expectations with Vietnam and Romania as top destinations. This helped move front month soybean meal futures higher by over 2.8%.
• Despite the poor export sales, the USDA did confirm a sale of soybeans to unknown destinations of 132,000 tons for the 23/24 marketing year, which was supportive.
• Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to raise the soybean carryout slightly and estimate new crop production around 4.494 bb. Argentina’s production is expected to be lowered while Brazil’s is expected to rise.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat export sales were disappointing with the USDA reporting an increase of only 1.0 mb for 22/23. For 23/24 the USDA reported an increase of 12.3 mb.
• Recent rainfall in the Plains states added pressure to wheat futures. Even some of the driest areas of Western Kansas have received measurable precipitation in the last 72 hours.
• Another day of talks between the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine took place as they look for a resolution. As it currently stands, the deal will expire on May 18.
• Despite Russia offering FOB wheat at $245 per ton, Algeria backed away from that tender, as Balkan prices were lower.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that heavy rains for Argentina’s wheat areas may not come until September.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After some solid bidding higher on Wednesday, spot cheese fell 4.25 cents to $1.56/lb for a new 18-month low.
• This had sellers active in the nearby Class III futures in which the June contract dropped 28 cents to finish at $16.91.
• Surprisingly, the May Class III contract is down 29 cents on the week, finding some hefty selling as the front month nearing the halfway point of May.
• The Class IV market saw its Q3 contract down slightly, but only one contract traded overall.
• Spot butter was 1.25 cents higher today, entering Friday’s trade down 3.75 cents on the week at $2.4075/lb. Spot powder will likely break a four-week winning streak after tomorrow’s trade.

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Author

Amanda Brill