CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers stayed in control of the corn market on Tuesday as the continued strong planting pace and crop friendly forecast triggered additional selling pressure in the corn market. July futures hit new lows for the move, breaking below December’s support level of $4.37.
• May corn futures expire on Wednesday, May 14, and could continue to influence the old crop side of the corn market with short-term price movement. May futures traded below the March corn settle price and hold a 6 ½ discount to the July futures, which could keep a negative tilt on the old crop corn market as the corn market feels comfortable with front end supplies.
• USDA reported 62% of the U.S. corn crop planted as of May 11, up 22 points from last week. That pace is 15% ahead of last year and 6% above the 5-year average. However, Illinois and Indiana are lagging slightly due to wet conditions in southern areas.
• Conditions remain favorable for planting, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Looking ahead, next week’s forecast includes beneficial precipitation across key growing regions, offering support for early crop development.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after volatile trade that saw the July contract down by nearly 18 cents at one point following yesterday’s bearish Crop Progress report. It seemed that the bullish momentum from yesterday’s WASDE, which anticipated a very small ending stocks number, brought futures higher in the end. Soybean meal was lower, while bean oil followed crude oil higher.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean plantings at 48% complete, which was higher than the trade guess of 47% and compared to 30% completion a week ago and the 5-year average of 37%. 17% of the crop is emerged, which compared to 7% a week ago and the average of 11%.
• Yesterday’s WASDE report was bullish for soybeans showing lower than expected ending stocks. For 24/25, bean ending stocks are forecast at 350 mb, which was down from 375 mb last month, and 25/26 ending stocks are forecast at just 295 MB, which was below the average trade guess. World ending stocks were also lowered by 2.6 mmt.
• Yesterday, markets jumped early following news that President Trump and Chinese President Xi reached a 90-day tariff truce, rolling back U.S. soybean tariffs to 30% from 145%, with China cutting its tariffs on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%. The announcement sparked rallies in soybeans, hogs, and equities, but some of these gains were given back today.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures recovered from early weakness to close higher Tuesday, despite lingering pressure from Monday’s bearish WASDE report and improved crop ratings. Support may have come from a notable drop in the U.S. Dollar Index and technical correction from oversold levels. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat futures closed lower, weighed down by favorable weather and rapid planting progress in the Northern Plains.
• As of May 11, the USDA has rated the winter wheat crop at 54% good to excellent, up 3% from last week, and above the 50% rating at this time a year ago. An estimated 53% of the crop is headed, 2% below last year, but well above the five-year average of 45%. Furthermore, spring wheat is said to be 66% planted, far beyond 59% last year and 49% average. Emergence is also ahead of schedule at 27%, compared to 23% a year ago and 19% on average.
• Concerns are rising over an outbreak of wheat curl mite, a pest that transmits wheat streak mosaic virus (WSMV). The mite population is reportedly expanding due to persistent drought in parts of the U.S. Plains, posing risks to both winter and spring wheat crops.
• According to the French ag ministry, their nation planted an estimated 4.60 million hectares of soft wheat. This is down from the April estimate of 4.63 million hectares, but if realized it would still be up 9.1% year over year. The declining estimate comes from what is planted in the spring, as the winter crop estimate was unchanged from April at 4.57 million hectares (making up the vast majority of their wheat production).

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures closed higher for a second straight day as prices continue to build momentum. The July contract led the way higher, improving 15 cents to close at $19.01.
• Spot cheese was unchanged from yesterday at $1.7750/lb while whey lost 1.25 cents to close at $0.53/lb.
• Class IV futures saw small gains through the November contract again today. The June contract was the biggest mover, gaining 7 cents to close at $17.72.
• Spot butter lost 0.75 cents on the day to go home at $2.3425/lb. Powder lost just 0.25 cents to close at $1.2075/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg