CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw reduced downward momentum on Wednesday as May contracts expired. Light buying interest emerged in the old crop market, supported by solid demand. May corn futures finished trading on Wednesday, settling at $4.38½.
• The USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new corn sales for the 2024-25 marketing year are expected to range between 1.2 and 2.1 million metric tons (MMT). Last week’s sales totaled 1.6805 MMT, reflecting continued strength in old crop demand.
• In weekly ethanol production, total production slipped to 292 million barrels/day, down 8 mbpd from last week and down 1% from last year. This total was below expectations and the lowest production in the past 53 weeks. Total corn used last week was estimated at 99 mb, which was slightly below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.
• Planting conditions remain favorable, with most areas enjoying an open window to complete fieldwork. Heading into the weekend, forecasts show improved chances of beneficial precipitation across key growing regions. While supportive for early crop development, this may limit near-term rallies in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher in bull spreading action with the front months gaining on the new crop contracts. Futures continued to break out of their recent trading range as traders focus on smaller acres and a potentially very small ending stocks number. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was higher.
• U.S. soybean exports could decline by up to 20% without a trade agreement with China, according to AgResource. Although tariffs have been significantly reduced, they remain higher than pre-trade war levels. Meanwhile, Brazilian President Lula has stated he is not concerned about potential U.S. retaliation over Brazil’s strengthening ties with China.
• In Brazil, one of the largest grain producers, SLC Agrícola SA, is expected to increase its planted acreage in 25/26 by nearly 14% starting in July. The company has expanded by acquiring smaller farms and grows corn, soybeans, and cotton.
• China is expected to reduce its soybean imports in 25/26 in order to cut use of soybean meal in the livestock sector. Soybean imports are expected to fall to 95.8 million tons, which would be down 2.8% from the forecast amount this year. This will impact both U.S. and South American export sales.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Kansas City wheat futures posted double-digit gains today, with Chicago futures not far behind, as the technical rebound continues. Winter wheat contracts remain near the bottom of the charts, and oversold conditions may be encouraging short covering. In contrast, Minneapolis wheat closed modestly lower, weighed down by recent rainfall across the Northern Plains and a rapid planting pace.
• The first day of the Kansas wheat crop tour came with an average yield estimate of 50.5 bpa. This compares with last year’s estimate of 49.9 bpa, and a five-year average of 45.1 bpa. For reference, the USDA is estimating Kansas’ wheat yield at 50 bpa versus 43 bpa last year.
• On a bearish note, the Russian ag ministry has said that frost damage has impacted about 100,000 hectares this month. This is only about 10% versus the amount impacted at this time last year. Additionally, the Black Sea region is expecting scattered rains that should benefit crop conditions.
• In Argentina, conditions have been mostly favorable for winter wheat planting so far. Later this week and into the weekend, northern and eastern regions have rain in the forecast. More precipitation is possible next week too, and this would promote establishment of the early planted wheat crop.
• According to their ag ministry, Ukrainian grain exports have reached 36.7 mmt since the season began on July 1. This represents a 17% decline year over year. Wheat exports in particular are down 13.3% year over year at 14.4 mmt. Furthermore, grain exports so far this month, at 1.5 mmt, are down nearly 50% from the same time period a year ago.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed but held small changes from Tuesday. June finished up a penny at $18.79.
• Cheddar blocks closed 6.75 cents higher at $1.8475 while barrels added a quarter cent to move spot cheese to $1.81/lb.
• Class IV milk was either unchanged or faced small, single-digit losses with June closing at $17.70.
• Spot butter was unchanged today with powder gaining 0.75 cents to moved to $1.2150/lb, matching a 2 1/2 month high.

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Author

Amanda Brill