CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A lack of fresh bullish news from China alongside a weak export sales report pressured grain markets Thursday, contributing to sharp losses across the complex. July corn lost 13 ¼ cents to 467 ½, while December Futures lost 11 ¾ cents to 491 ¼.
• As President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded, rumored corn and soybean business failed to materialize. Expectations remain that China will largely adhere to the trade framework established in November. Thursday’s grain trade reflected a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction, with risk premium being pulled back out of the market.
• USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 7, corn export sales totaled 685,000MT (27 mb), which was well below expectations. Total corn exports are still trending 25% above last year, but that was down 6% from last week. Higher corn prices and growing South America competition could be impacting the corn export market for US corn.
• Brazil’s ag agency, CONAB, released its May corn crop projections Thursday morning. Despite dry weather impacting yield potential in some areas, a 3% increase in planted area to 22.56 mha (55.7 million acres) is expected to support total corn production near 140.17 mmt, down 1% from last year.
• In a close vote (218-203) the House of Representatives voted to move forward legislation to allow year-round E15 on Wednesday afternoon. Passage of the final bill may have a more difficult hurdle to clear in the Senate vote.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower following President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi that had little to do with discussion of an agricultural trade deal. July soybeans lost 36-1/2 cents to $11.92-1/2 while November lost 24-1/4 cents to $11.83-1/2. July soybean meal lost $6.00 to $332.50 and July bean oil lost 0.66 cents to 73.66 cents.
• Today’s export sales report was poor for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 3.8 million bushels for 25/26 and 3.0 million bushels for 26/27. This was a marketing year low- down 28% from the previous week and down 60% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were Indonesia, China, and Colombia. Export shipments of 24.7 mb were above the 16.8 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 252,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, and 132,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
• NOPA soybean crush for the month of April is projected at 214.03 million bushels which slowed a bit due to seasonal maintenance despite strong crush margins. If realized, this would be down by 5.4% from the previous month.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat took a hit today, posting double digit losses in all three classes as pressure spilled over from an even bigger drop in soybean futures. The meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi may have been a buy the rumor, sell the fact type situation – agriculture took a back seat to discussion on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Taiwan too. This resulted in long liquidation of grain futures across the board. In the July contract, Chicago lost 17-1/2 cents to 658, Kansas City dropped 19-1/2 cents to 705-1/4, and MIAX fell 17-1/4 cents to 702-1/2.
• The USDA reported an increase of 4.9 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 8.1 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 16.2 mb, which falls below the 20.9 mb pace needed to reach their export goal of 910 mb. Wheat export commitments have reached 915 mb, up 16% from last year.
• According to the USDA, as of May 12, an estimated 71% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions. This is an increase of 1% from the week prior. For the same time period, spring wheat area in drought increased 2% to 20%.
• The second day of the Kansas wheat tour estimated an average yield of 39.3 bpa, compared with a 53.5 bpa reading a year ago. Going forward, yields in the eastern part of the state are expected to be higher than in the west.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Nearby Class III futures fell given the spot cheese weakness, but the late 2026 and early 2027 contracts held some gains.
• Spot cheese fell a nickel to move back to $1.57/lb, a rough blow to the Class III market. Whey was unchanged.
• Class IV futures were a mixed bag today. June was the biggest mover, settling 12 cents lower at $22.45.
• Spot butter was up 2.75 cents on the day to move to $1.6450/lb while powder fell 1.25 cents. Both saw a decent amount of loads trade.

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Author

Brandon Doherty