CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished mixed on the day. Strong weekly export sales supported old crop contracts, but overall gains were limited by concerns over biofuel demand and favorable weather forecasts.
• The USDA released its weekly export sales report on Thursday morning. For the week ending May 8, new sales totaled 1.677 million metric tons (66 million bushels) for old crop and 509,000 metric tons (20 million bushels) for new crop. Old crop sales exceeded analysts’ expectations, with South Korea emerging as the largest buyer last week.
• An announcement from the EPA on Thursday added pressure to the grain markets. Instead of a near-term update on blending volumes, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that the agency will complete a new rulemaking process “over the next few months.” The delay disappointed traders hoping for clarity on Renewable Fuel Standard volumes and triggered a limit-down move in soybean oil. The spillover weighed on new crop corn futures, reflecting concerns about long-term ethanol demand.
• Planting conditions across the U.S. remain favorable, with most areas seeing an open window for fieldwork. Forecasts show increasing chances for beneficial precipitation across key growing regions next week, supporting early crop development and helping cap market rallies.
• Mexico remains the largest buyer of U.S. corn on the export market. Current weather and drought conditions there could become a quiet but supportive factor for U.S. corn. Mexico’s primary planting window runs from April through August, accounting for about 70% of its total production. Drought in key growing areas could reduce yields, potentially boosting U.S. corn exports next winter.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower due to a limit down move in soybean oil, and July soybeans gave up all of their gains from earlier this week. While soybean export sales were within expectations, the bearish news concerning soybean oil was an announcement last night regarding Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations.
• On Wednesday evening, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin confirmed that the agency will initiate a new rulemaking process over the coming months to set updated volume obligations. Traders are concerned the delay could signal lower-than-expected biofuel mandates, potentially below the anticipated 4.6 billion gallons, though this remains speculative.
• Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales with an increase of 10.4 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 18.0 mb for 25/26. Top destinations were to Egypt, Indonesia, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 15.8 mb were below the 33.4 mb needed each week to mee the USDA’s export estimates.
• Projections for the U.S. soybean crush in April average 183.8 million bushels. This compares to 194.6 million bushels in March and 169.5 million bushels in April of last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended higher across all three classes today, showing relative strength despite heavy pressure in the soy complex. Soybean oil closed down its three-cent limit, and soybean futures lost 25 to 27 cents on the day. Support for U.S. wheat may be coming from the upward trend in Paris milling wheat futures, though domestic strength appears largely driven by continued technical buying and short covering, as fresh fundamental news remains limited.
• The USDA reported an increase of 2.2 million bushels (mb) in wheat export sales for 2024/25 and 27.4 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 13.6 mb, falling short of the 15.3 mb weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s 2024/25 export goal of 820 mb. However, total sales commitments for 2024/25 now stand at 798 mb, up 14% from a year ago.
• On day two of the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, scouts estimated an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.8 bpa above day one and well above last year’s 42.4 bpa. While there is some concern about wheat curl mite and related disease, impacts appear limited at this point in the season.
• Brazil’s CONAB released updated crop estimates, trimming its wheat production forecast slightly by 0.22 million metric tons (mmt) to 8.25 mmt. For comparison, the USDA currently projects Brazilian wheat output at 8.0 mmt.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina is estimating their 25/26 wheat crop at 21 mmt. If realized, this would be an increase from the 20.1 mmt harvested in 24/25. Wheat planting is just getting started there, but the RGE is anticipating a planted area of 7.2 million hectares which would be the largest in 15 years.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheddar blocks were up a nickel and barrels added 4.75 cents from Wednesday to bring spot cheese to $1.85875/lb. Whey also gained two cents.
• June Class III futures closed 59 cents higher today at $19.38, a seven-month high for that individual contract and a three-month high for the second month chart.
• Butter fell a penny as it enters Friday up a quarter cent on the week. Powder was up 1.25 cents today with 2 cents overall of gains this week.
• All the remaining 2025 Class IV contracts were unchanged today. The second month Class IV chart closed $1.68 below its Class III counterpart.

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Author

Brandon Doherty