CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn market saw selling pressure at the end of the week as current corn supplies and fund liquidation pressured the market. July corn lost 11 ¾ cent to 455 ¾, and December dropped 10 ¼ cents to 481. For the week, July corn lost 15 ½ cents, and December fell 12 ½ market a second lower weekly close.
• The July–December spread continued to weaken as the market digested expanding global corn supplies. USDA added 10 MMT to global production estimates in Tuesday’s report, raising Argentina by 7 MMT and Brazil by 3 MMT, adding more competition to the export pipeline over the coming months.
• Traders will closely monitor a weekend weather system expected to bring rainfall to parts of the western Corn Belt. Those areas have recently shown drought stress, and meaningful precipitation could add further pressure to prices next week.
• U.S. corn export demand remains strong, with total exports still running 25% ahead of last year. However, Thursday’s weaker export sales report raised concerns as competition from freshly harvested South American supplies continues to increase.
• U.S. corn export demand remains strong, with total exports still running 25% ahead of last year. However, Thursday’s weaker export sales report raised concerns as competition from freshly harvested South American supplies continues to increase. Managed Money positioning will still likely reflect an extremely large, long position on this week’s Commitment of Trader’s Report. The weekly report is compiled from positioning from the close on Tuesday. Since Tuesday, funds have been liquidating long positions, and the July corn market has lost nearly 30 cents off the Wednesday high of 484.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day as the summit in Beijing wrapped up without a new trade deal or much discussion on agricultural imports. July soybeans lost 15-1/2 cents to 1177 while November lost 12-3/4 cents to 1170-3/4. July soybean meal gained $1.80 to $334.30 and July soybean oil gained 0.22 cents to 73.88 cents.
• The April NOPA crush report came in below expectations at 211.856 million bushels. While crush was still up 11% from a year ago, it declined from March’s 226.161 million bushels and missed the average trade estimate of 214 million. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.947 billion pounds—below expectations, up 28% from last year, but lower than March levels.
• Key takeaways from the Beijing summit are a commitment by both sides to get the Strait of Hormuz open, trying to point to a stable relationship between countries, and renewing import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants. The previous agreement in which China will buy 25 mmt of beans a year will stay in place, but nothing more.
• For the week, July soybeans lost 31 cents while November lost 18-3/4 cents. July soybean meal actually gained $14.60 while July soybean oil lost 0.44 cents. Funds were nearly record long a few weeks ago but are likely exiting those long positions as planting is in full swing and ahead of pace.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat continued to bleed today, closing sharply lower across all three classes. Momentum seems to have carried the market further downward after yesterday’s selloff. Additional pressure came from reports that East Coast flour millers are importing wheat from the Baltic region in search of cheaper supplies. In the July contract, Chicago closed 22-1/4 cents lower at 635-3/4, Kansas City was down 17-1/4 cents at 688, and MIAX fell 17-1/4 cents to 685-1/4.
• The final Kansas Wheat Tour estimate pegged yields at 38.9 bpa, the lowest since 2023 and below the five-year average of 45.5 bpa. State production was estimated at 218 million bushels, compared to USDA projections of 37 bpa and 214.6 million bushels.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has estimated Argentina’s 26/27 wheat production at 21.3 mmt, which would be a significant drop from the 25/26 figure of 29.5 mmt. However, this is in line with the USDA’s forecast of 21 mmt from earlier this week.
• Expana has increased their forecast of EU soft wheat production by 0.1 mmt to 128.8 mmt. If realized, that would still be a decline of 6% from last year’s crop. Better conditions in certain regions are the cause of the increase – recent rainfall in France and Germany has alleviated drought fears.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures fell slightly going into the weekend on a weaker spot session for cheese. June futures closed 2 cents lower to $17.02.
• Spot cheese 1.50 cents to close at $1.5550/lb while whey added a penny to go home at $0.6850/lb.
• Class IV futures were quiet on the day despite both butter and powder markets drifting lower. June futures were up 5 cents to close at $22.50.
• Spot butter fell to $1.64/lb, down half a cent on the day. Powder lost 0.25 cents to end the week at $2.2725/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg