CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market was pressured most of the session by a strong planting progress report, but late day strength in wheat lifted corn futures off its lows to finish with small losses on the day.
• The USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday afternoon saw a large jump in corn planting last week. US producers have planted 70% of this year’s corn crop as of Sunday.  This was up 21% from last week, and slightly above market expectations. The 5-year average was 71%.
• Although most states are on track or ahead of their 5-year averages, Iowa is only 78% complete, trailing its average pace by 8%, while Illinois stands at 67% complete, behind by 4%. Recent rainfall in Iowa this week is expected to further slow planting progress in affected areas.
• USDA announced two flash sales of corn on the export market this morning. Mexico bought 113,500 mt of corn split evenly between new crop and old crop, and Spain added 110,000 mt of old crop corn.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower giving up about half of the gains from yesterday, while both soybean meal and oil ended lower as well. Pressure came from yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report which saw soybean plantings advancing above the 5-year average. Both July and November soybeans remain above their 100-day moving averages.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that soybeans were 52% planted which compares to the average trade guess of 49% and the 5-year average of 49%. Planting pace is now ahead of the 5-year average, and 26% of the crop is emerged which is ahead of schedule as well.
• This morning, Reuters reported that China had purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans for July shipment which is encouraging following the tariffs that were recently announced on Chinese goods and that caused fears of trade retaliation.
• In the southern regions of Brazil, flooding remains an issue, and rains are forecast throughout the end of this week. While the flooding has clearly damaged soybeans in the field, it has also caused transportation issues to port cities. Drier conditions are expected after this week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed higher in Chicago and Kansas City contracts but posted small losses in Minneapolis. Though Matif wheat did close marginally higher today, it was not enough to provide much support to the US market. Lower corn and soybean futures also likely limited the upside for wheat.
• According to the weekly Crop Progress report, winter wheat condition declined 1% to 49% good to excellent, but poor to very poor remained steady at 18%. Looking at the breakdown by class, soft red winter is rated 73% good to excellent, while hard red winter is rated 44% good to excellent. Winter wheat is 69% headed versus 58% last year and 57% average. Spring wheat is 79% planted, which exceeds the average of 57% last year and 65% average. Additionally, 43% of that crop has emerged, which is well above the 33% average, and 27% last year.
• IKAR lowered their estimate of Russian wheat production from 86 mmt to 83.5 mmt, while the USDA is using an 88 mmt figure. IKAR is also said to have reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports from 47 to 45 mmt; the USDA is projecting 52 mmt of exports.
• Although wheat prices have increased recently, producer margins in Brazil are still smaller than the previous year. CONAB is estimating that wheat planted area may decline by 11.1% to 3.086 million hectares this season. Despite this, yield may increase, resulting in a 9.082 mmt crop, which would be a 12.2% increase versus 2023.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III was pressured limit down today in June and July futures contract. This isn’t overly surprising given the recent rally over the past couple of weeks by more than $5/cwt. Nonetheless, Class III is still in an uptrend but with expanded limits for tomorrow could pressure the market further before finding its footing again.
• Spot cheese was weaker today contributing the weakness seen in Class III prices. Spot cheese closed 5.75 cents lower on 15 loads to $1.9575/lb. Spot whey also lost 1.50 cents to close at $0.40/lb.
• Class IV futures were impressive today with all 2024 contracts trading in the green led by July futures which gained 34 cents to $21.70/cwt.
• Spot butter moved higher by 2 cents to close at $3.1125/lb while powder gained 1.50 cents to $1.1750/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg