CORN HIGHLIGHTS: 

• Spread trading between Old Crop and New Crop corn futures was the setup of the market on Monday. Old crop prices, supported by the supportive cash market and expected planting pace and favorable weather, pressured the New Crop futures.
• Cash basis levels on the National Average Corn basis were trading near 36 cents over July as of last Friday, and well over the 5-year average of 15 cents. This reflects the tightness of old crop supplies available and the current front-end demand for corn.
• The expected planting pace for last week is that 48% of the corn crop will be planted as of Sunday versus a 5-year average of 42%. Favorable weather forecasts overall should help maintain a good pace of planting despite rain in the Corn Belt on Monday.
• Weekly export inspections for corn were disappointing at 963,000 MT, well below last week’s totals. Year-over-year, export inspections are down 35% of last year and behind the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast for the marketing year.
• The corn market and grain markets in general will be looking towards Friday’s USDA WASDE report for near-term direction and the market’s first look at 2023-24 marketing year supply/demand numbers. The report will be released on Friday, May 12 at 2:00 CST.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans, along with soybean meal and oil, began the day higher but faded to a lower close for all but soybean meal, which ended slightly higher. Lower export inspections were not supportive.
• Soybean inspections totaled 14.5 mb for the week ending Thursday, May 4, at the lower end of expectations. Total inspections are now at 1,758 mb and are even with the previous year.
• Crop progress will be released this afternoon, and the average trade estimate is that 34% of the soybean crop has been planted. Progress was 19% planted as of last week.
• Today, palm oil futures surged by 4.3% to the highest price in three weeks, while crude oil worked higher as well. Depressed world veg oil prices have negatively affected the soy complex.
• While Brazilian soybean premiums have risen slightly from a few weeks ago, their prices are low enough to spur Chinese demand and for China to cancel US purchases for cheaper Brazilian soybeans. Brazilian producers are scaling back on sales, however, which could drive prices back up.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• K.C. contracts led the market higher on the continued concern of lower production in the southern Plains. Some believe total HRW production could be as low as 200 mb.
• Adding support to the Minneapolis contracts are dry conditions in Canada, while the northern Plains continue to be wet, with growing concerns about the number of prevent plant acres.
• The Wheat Quality Council Tour will begin on May 15, which will give the market a much better understanding of the Kansas wheat crop’s condition. So far, Oklahoma’s wheat crop is thought to be the smallest in nearly 70 years.
• The Black Sea grain deal continues to be in negotiations, though there are thoughts that any renewal may be unlikely. If so, it could be a bullish influence in the market as other world exporters would need to fill the gap.
• The CFTC reported on Friday that Managed Money fund positions as of Tuesday, May 2 were net short 126,324 contracts of Chicago wheat, which comprises nearly 40% of the commodity’s total open interest, and the second highest percentage in 17 years.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS: 

• The dairy market had an extremely quiet session on Monday as just 623 contracts traded in the 2023 class III milk strip.
• Contracts were mixed overall as a lack of bidding in the spot trade pressured. Second month class III added 5c while second month class IV fell a penny.
• The biggest mover for the day was surprisingly the front month class III contract. May milk was down 11c to $16.46.
• Sellers offered spot cheese barrels 1.50c lower to $1.5150/lb as no loads traded. Blocks held steady at $1.6125/lb.
• Spot butter saw offers as well, falling 1.50c to $2.43/lb on 1 load traded.

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Author

Amanda Brill