CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Buyers came back into the corn market on a “turn around” Tuesday as the market was pulled higher by the front month futures as traders may have started covering short positions before Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.
• According to the USDA‘s latest Crop Progress and Condition report on Monday afternoon, 97% of the corn crop is planted. This leaves approximately 2.8 million acres left to be planted on June 10. These acres, if unplanted, could lower the total planted acres for corn on the June 30 acre report back below 95 million, which should support Dec corn futures at these levels.
• The USDA will release the June WASDE report on Thursday. Analysts are expecting little change in the new crop forecasts from May, but the focus will be on demand projections for the old crop. Expectations are for adjustments higher in export demand, which could lower corn carryout for 2024-25 below 1.400 billion bushels.
• Corn crop conditions improved by 2% Good/Excellent to 71% G/E in Monday’s Crop Progress report. The firmness in corn prices on Tuesday may have signified that those conditions were priced in with the weakness on Monday.
• Corn charts saw an improved technical picture with Tuesday’s close as prices reversed higher off early session lows. Price follow-through on Wednesday may be key for signaling a turn in an oversold market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans finished the day in positive territory, though they reversed off earlier highs that saw the July contract up more than 6 cents at one point. Beneficial weather has continued to apply downward pressure, while optimism over potential trade deals with other countries has offered support. Both soybean meal and soybean oil also ended the day higher.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its updated Crop Progress report which showed the crop at 90% planted which was up from 84% a week ago, and 75% has emerged which compared to 63% a week ago. Crop conditions improved by 1 point with 68% of the crop now rated good to excellent.
• China imported a record number of soybeans in the month of May. For the month, China imported an estimated 13.92 MMT (511 MB). The strong imports followed disappointing totals in February, March, and April as Chinese importers were waiting for the freshly harvested Brazilian soybeans to hit the export market.
• The trade talks between the U.S. and China yesterday reportedly went well but a deal has not yet been released. Trade deals with Japan, India, Vietnam, and South Korea are reportedly very close.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat was the downside leader in the grain complex today, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar, lower Matif wheat futures, and improving U.S. crop ratings. Additionally, from a technical perspective, all three U.S. futures classes now have downward momentum on the daily RSI and stochastics.
• According to the USDA Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions improved 2% from last week to 54% good to excellent. Additionally, 88% of the crop is headed and harvest is 4% complete, which is well below last year’s 11% pace and the average of 7%. The Spring wheat crop is 82% emerged, and conditions improved 3% from a week ago to 53% good to excellent.
• Overnight, the Deputy Prime Minister of Russia stated that this year’s Russian grain harvest would total 135 mmt, which would be 7% above last year’s 125.9 mmt production. Additionally, 93% of their winter crops are said to be in good condition. This added to pressure in the U.S. wheat market today.
• Wheat harvest is set to start in the North China Plain this week, though may be delayed by scattered rains late in the week. Heaviest rain totals will be across southeast China into next week.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were in the red today with double digit losses for the July and August contracts.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.87/lb today with blocks at $1.88/lb vs. $1.86/lb barrels. Whey lost a half cent.
• The second half of 2025 Class IV contracts were all lower today with August down the hardest, losing 24 cents to move to $19.26. July closed at $18.99.
• Spot butter was down 4.50 cents on 30 loads traded to move to $2.5050/lb as the volume remains high on a day-to-day basis. Powder was unchanged.

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Author

Brandon Doherty