CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures struggled again to start the week, as favorable weather forecasts and technical selling pressured prices. Front-end contracts pushed to new nearby lows, with December corn posting its lowest close since December.
• The outside market remained extremely volatile on Monday with a close eye on tensions in the Middle East. The crude oil market dropped significantly of the session highs after Iran retaliated against the U.S. air strikes over the weekend. The crude oil market traded over $8-9 of session highs with the thought the tension may de-escalate.
• Despite building heat across the Corn Belt, timely rainfall continues to alleviate crop stress. The extended outlook remains favorable, with above-average precipitation and warm—but not extreme—temperatures expected, supporting crop development.
• The recent rainfall totals across the Corn Belt have reduced the areas of drought slightly week over week. Total corn area that remains in some form of drought is at 17% according to the latest drought monitor maps.
• USDA’s weekly corn inspections showed exporters shipped 1.476 MMT (58.1 MB) last week. Total inspections are now running 29% ahead of last year and remain well on pace to exceed the USDA’s 2024/25 export forecast.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower with larger losses in the deferred contracts as sharply lower crude oil prices weighed on soybean oil. Soybean oil and crude began the day higher, but traders may be anticipating that the conflict with Iran may not translate to disruptions in oil distribution.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as reports emerged that Iran launched six missiles toward U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq in response to weekend U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the absence of direct attacks on energy infrastructure led to selling in both crude oil and soybean oil.
• Friday’s export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.
• China’s soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year-over-year in May, reaching 12.11 MMT, up from 8.81 MMT last year. U.S. soybean shipments to China totaled just 1.63 MMT, highlighting Brazil’s continued dominance during the peak export season.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures posted double-digit losses across all classes on Monday, as broader commodity markets turned risk-off amid heightened geopolitical tensions. The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend was met with reports of Iranian missile retaliation targeting a U.S. base in Qatar. Interestingly, crude oil fell $4–5 per barrel, likely due to the lack of damage to energy infrastructure and the continued operation of the Strait of Hormuz—nonetheless, crude’s weakness may have pressured grains as well.
• USDA reported weekly wheat inspections at 9.4 million bushels, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 31 mb—20% below last year’s pace and trailing USDA’s annual export projection of 825 mb (up 1% year-over-year).
• Severe storms and tornadoes in North Dakota on Friday may have caused localized spring wheat damage, including reports of compromised grain infrastructure. Crop loss estimates are still unknown.
• Egypt’s wheat imports have totaled just 4.9 MMT so far this year, according to its agriculture minister—a 31% decline year-over-year. As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, this pullback may have added pressure to the market.
• Ukrainian grain exports for the season reached 40 MMT as of last Friday, down 19% from last year. Wheat exports totaled 15.6 MMT, off 14% year-over-year. Their export season concludes at the end of June.
• On a bearish note, the European Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit has increased their estimate of EU soft wheat yields. Now seen at 6.08 mt per hectare, this is up 0.04 mt from their projection last month.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The pressure continued on the Class III markets today as July futures fell 25 cents to $17.26.
• Spot cheese fell 0.75 cents today to move to $1.65375/lb. Spot whey was unchanged at $0.57/lb.
• Class IV futures were either unchanged or lower today. The second month July contract was 6 cents lower to $18.99.
• Spot butter started the week with 2.50 cents of gains, a nice start after last week’s losses. Powder was unchanged at $1.26/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg