CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Sellers maintained control of the grain market for the fourth straight session, and corn futures finished with new lows and moderate losses. Between good weather, large Brazil and new crop U.S. corn crop potential, buyers are still on the sidelines.
- Extended forecasts remain supportive for crop development heading into July, with near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation expected — ideal conditions as fields approach pollination. For now, the market sees no major weather threats.
- USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for new corn sales to range from 500-1.2 MMT for cold crop and 100,000 – 350,000 MT for new crop.
- Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.081 million barrels per day, down from 1.109 mbpd the previous week. An estimated 104.8 million bushels of corn were used — slightly lower week over week but still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s annual ethanol demand target.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans closed sharply lower for a fourth straight session Wednesday, pressured by fund selling and broadly favorable weather. July soybeans have lost 42 3/4 cents this week, while November is down 42 1/4 cents. Both soybean meal and oil also closed lower, with meal leading the decline.
- Crude oil began to recover slightly today following the tensions and then apparent cease fire agreement between Israel and Iran. Higher crude oil prices should benefit soybean oil and therefore the soy complex. In addition, the declining dollar is supportive to exports.
- Looking ahead, the USDA will release its Acreage Report on Monday. Analysts expect soybean planted acres to remain near 83.5 million, though estimates range from 82.0 to 85.0 million acres. Corn acres are expected to rise slightly.
- Brazil’s grain exporter group Anec raised its June soybean export forecast to 14.99 million metric tons, up from its previous estimate of 14.36 mmt.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat futures closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by weaker Matif wheat, declines in corn and soybeans, a general risk-off tone in commodities, winter wheat harvest pressure, and likely renewed fund shorting.
- A Bloomberg survey suggests traders expect little change to U.S. all-wheat acreage in Friday’s USDA report, holding near 45.4 million acres. However, June 1 wheat stocks are expected to rise 20% year-over-year to 836 million bushels.
- SovEcon increased their estimate of Russia’s 2025 grain production to 129.5 mmt. Wheat accounts for 83 mmt of that total, which is steady with the USDA’s forecast. In related news, Russian spring wheat conditions have improved – many areas have seen recent rainfall which has improved soil moisture levels.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- July Class III futures closed 4 cents higher today, its first close green in ten trading days. The rest of the active contracts closed with losses.
- Spot cheese was 1.375 cents higher today to close at $1.61875/lb. Spot whey gave back a half cent.
- June and July Class IV futures were unchanged while August through December closed 6 to 9 cents lower. Spot butter was 1.50 cents lower today while powder was unchanged.
- May Cold Storage had total natural cheese in storage at 1.412 billion lbs, down 2% YoY and up 1% from April. Butter was down 5% YoY and up 7% from last month.
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