CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures reversed early-session losses Thursday as rumors of Chinese interest in U.S. soybeans and a hotter weather forecast sparked short covering ahead of the weekend and next week’s USDA Acreage report. July corn gained 7 ¾ cents to 414 ¾, while December added 8 ¼ cents to 443.
• Technically, the corn market reversed off new contract lows established during the overnight. July corn traded to 403 ¾, and December to 431 ½. The turn higher established bullish reversals on the charts, improving the short-term technical picture. The key will be follow-through buying going into tomorrow and next week.
• USDA released weekly Export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 18, US exporters reported new sales of 743,000 MT (29.3 mb) for old crop and 736,000 MT (29.0 mb) for new crop corn. These were withing expectations.
• Forecasts call for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt into early July, while rainfall is expected to remain average to above average in the northern corn belt. The possibility of some heat stress likely added some weather premium to an oversold market.
• USDA will release the June Planted Acres and Grain stocks report on Tuesday, June 30. Expectations are for planted corn acres to be 94.992 million acres, down slightly from the March intentions report and nearly 2.8 million acres below last year. Grain stocks estimates are expected to be 5.425 billion bushels of corn, up 17% year-over-year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher due to rumors that China is looking at more purchases of U.S. soybeans. Funds may also be repositioning ahead of the USDA report on the 30. July soybeans gained 18-3/4 cents to $11.27-1/2 while November gained 22 cents to $11.57. July soybean meal gained $4.60 to $308.20 and July soybean oil gained 1.35 cents to 70.81 cents.
• Today’s export sales were good for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 16.7 million bushels for 25/26 and an increase of 33.1 million bushels for 26.27. This was up 7% from the previous week and was up 50% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Algeria, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 8.0 mb were below the 12.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• Further support today likely came from news that Argentinian oilseed processors are threatening a strike next week due to wage disagreements between unions and the crushing and export industry that are unresolved. Unions are asking for higher wages while exporters are pushing for inflation linked adjustments. If the strike goes through, it would likely be bullish for soy products.
• Attention is shifting toward USDA’s June 30 Planted Acreage report. Analysts expect farmers to have planted 85.25 million soybean acres, up from USDA’s March estimate of 84.7 million acres, as lower input costs compared to corn encouraged some acreage shifts toward soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures ended mixed on Thursday, with both winter wheat classes closing higher while spring wheat finished mostly lower. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index provided support to the grain complex, though the primary driver was likely the sharp rally in soybeans fueled by rumors of potential Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. In the July contract, Chicago gained 5-1/4 cents to 591, Kansas City rallied 3-1/4 cents to 620-1/2, and MIAX was up 3 cents at 587-1/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 18.5 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 17.7 mb, which is above the 14.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their 775 mb export goal. Total 26/27 wheat export commitments stand at 202 mb, down 17% from last year.
• According to Ukrainian state rail system, Ukrzaliznytsia, their grain shipments have increased 24% year over year, since the beginning of June. This is despite increased Russian attacks on infrastructure. Furthermore, Ukraine’s economy ministry reports that their nation has shipped 35.9 mmt of grain in the 25/26 season so far, compared with 40 mmt in the season prior.
• Heat and dryness are expected to prevail across much of Europe into July. Additionally, the Black Sea region is also expected to remain dry, albeit without the warm weather. In any case, this forecast is unfavorable for crops, including wheat.
• On a bearish note, falling global wheat export prices may limit upside for U.S. futures. Wheat out of Poland is currently said to be the world’s cheapest; it is at an $18/mt discount to that of France, and $90/mt below US offers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The July and August Class IV contract both closed 38 cents higher today, bringing the second month back over $18.00.
• Spot butter was up 3.00 cent on 21 loads traded, settling at $1.5550./lb and back to even on the week, while powder was up a half cent.
• Class III action was mixed and overall quiet. The second month July contract fell another 9 cents to move to $15.71.
• Both cheese and whey were unchanged today. They enter Friday up 0.3750 of a cent and down a penny, respectively.
• Today’s Cold Storage report had cheese down 1% YoY while butter was down 8% from May 2025.

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Author

John Heinberg