TFM Daily Market Summary 6-30-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day


  • A surprise jump in corn planted acres brought strong selling pressure in the corn market to end the week. December corn closed down 6.4% and posted its lowest daily close since October 2021. For the week, December corn futures dropped 93-1/4 cents.
  • The USDA Planted Acres report raised planted corn acres to 1 million acres, the highest total in 10 years, and up 2.3% from the March intentions report and 6.2% over last year. Market analysts were expecting a total of 91.9 million acres.
  • USDA released quarterly Grain Stocks report, and total grain stocks were 4.106 billion bushels, down 150 million bushels from expectations and 5.6% from last year’s total. The supportive number was outweighed by the strong jump in planted acres during the session.
  • Weather forecasts remain more friendly for crop development as long-range forecasts hold a wetter and cooler bias across the corn belt into the middle of July.
  • The weak prices action and technical close will likely keep the corn market pressured going into the holiday trade next week. The December close below $5.00 is disappointing to market bulls and could trigger additional liquidation to start the week.


  • Soybeans absolutely skyrocketed today following the USDA Acreage and Stocks report which saw fewer soybean acres planted in favor of corn. Soybean meal ended over 4% higher, and soybean oil closed over 7% higher in the December contracts.
  • The USDA has estimated soybeans at 83.5 million acres, far below the average trade guess of 87.7 million acres and the previous USDA estimate of 87.5 ma. US quarterly soy stocks came in at 796 million bushels, below the trade guess of 812 mb but overshadowed by the huge drop in acres.
  • Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This was the first flash sale to China that the US has seen in months.
  • While today’s report gave soybeans a significant rally, weekend weather is forecast to be wet in the driest areas of the Corn Belt, and the longer-term forecast is wet as well. It is possible that trade will go back to trading weather markets next week.


  • Today the USDA estimated 2023 all wheat acreage basically in line with expectation at 49.6 mb vs 49.65 mb expected. This was, however, up 9% from 2022. Included in this change was spring wheat acreage, which increased from the expected 10.51 mb to 11.1 mb.
  • Today the USDA estimated June 1 wheat stocks at 580 million bushels. This was less than the 611 mb expectation and 698 mb last year. While this is somewhat friendly, wheat likely followed corn lower.
  • Yesterday the International Grains Council increased their projection of world wheat production by 6 mmt to 783 mmt for 23/24, which offered no support to the US wheat market today.
  • Technical momentum for wheat is downward on both stochastics and the RSI. Support for Dec Chicago wheat at the 21-day moving average, around 6.91, was violated today.
  • According to Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, he sees no arguments to extend the Black Sea export deal beyond the expiration of July 18.
  • Paris milling wheat could not hold onto earlier gains and posted losses for a fourth day out of the past five sessions.


  • While some months were higher today in Class III and IV, those gains only minimized weekly losses in the second half of 2023 for both classes.
  • Spot markets found consistent buyers on the week, over 100 loads of cheese and 62 loads of whey were the leaders.
  • April US milk production rose 0.61% year-over-year, while butterfat production was up 2.12% for the same time period.
  • US dairy cow culling for the week ending June 17th, up 6.6% from the same week last year.

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John Heinberg

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